Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is a second form of backup proposed for wind generators. My investigation, however, revealed a surprising problem from CAES, radioactive radon gas would be brought to the surface with returning compressed air. The problem appears to be far more serious than the release of radioactive gases associated with nuclear power generation. My case study of proposed CAES project presented by the Ridge Energy Storage & Grid Services company to Texas State Energy Conservation Office in 2005 showed that 40% of the energy for the project would come from the burning of natural gas. CASE systems are huge geothermal heat pumps, and they return cold air. Humidity in the air freezes, and the ice can damage generator turbines. Heat lost in the CAES process represents lost energy from electricity used to compress the air. In evaluating the cost of wind generated electricity I stipulated
a cost for new West Texas wind of $2250 per name plate KW in 2009. Since the capacity factor of West Texas runs around .40, the adverage output West Texas wind producer can expect to pay $5625 produce KWs of electricity his windmill will average producing. Since only 70% of the electricity entering the CAES facility reaches the consumer, the wind producer must add 30% more capacity to compensate for the energy loss. Thus the price of the wind generated electry entering the CAES facility must compensate the wind producer for something like a $8000 capitol investment for every average kW sold to the CAES facility.In addition the estimated cost of the Ridge Energy CAES facility was $765 per KW of electrical output, Thus we are looking at an investment of nearly $9000 per kW of electrical capacity and this does not count the cost of new electrical transmission lines from West Texas to energy hungry Dallas. In contrast
the 2008 cost of nuclear power is somewhere between $4000 and $5000 per kW (as opposed to an estimated $8000 to 12,000 figure during the middle of the next decade).And nuclear plants can be located close to electricity markets. In addition, the nuclear plant would be far more flexible, and would produce more electricity on an annual basis than the wind + CAES combination. In addition I noted an alternative employment of the CAES system that no one seems to have thought of, the used of CAES in in nuclear cooling, that would produce a low cost nuclear CAES combined cycle:
It seems to have escaped the notice of most CASE advocates that CAES casn be teamed with nuclear power plants in innovative ways. Since it is more economical to keep reactors running at full power all night, suplus electricity produced at night could be used to store compressed air. During the day, compressed air can be used to expand the reactors daytime power output by as much as 40%. The air does not have to be heated with natural gas. Indeed the compressed air can be heated from the reactors waste heat, killing two birds with one stone, and conserving the water used for daytime reactor cooling, and the use of compressed air in cooling the reactor, would creat significant water use savings, allowing reactors to run even during drought conditions.
Assume that the system operators chose to back up the 1 GW wind system with nuclear power rather than a redundant wind system plus batteries. The cost of the wind system would then drop to $2.7 billion plus $5 billion for nuclear backup or $7.7 billion. Quite obviously the nuclear backup would be cheaper, but now the wind is totally redundant, because the backup system can operate full time for just the added price of fuel. Thus the purely nuclear system would simply be a lower cost than wind a reliable wind system. The nuclear system would be more reliable, and could be counted on with a fairly high degree of certainty to produce at 100% of its rated capacity during peak electrical demand summer months.



















WilmotMcCutchen said:
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Tue, 2009-12-08 16:41 — Wilmot McCutchenNathan Wilson said:
On the topic of wind energy storage: CAES with natural gas reheat is a lot less efficient than is often claimed. When the electrical value of the needed natural gas is calculated using the efficiency of a modern combined-cycle gas plant, the round trip electrical storage efficiency comes out to only 40%. Adiabatic CAES is much better, with 75% theoretically possible; this requires storing the heat of compression for re-use by heating a fluid like oil.
The most efficient option of all would be thermal energy storage for an energy source that is already thermal. Solar thermal power plants come to mind, but a Gen IV nuclear power plant (such as a LFTR) would also be well suited to thermal energy storage, and could be used in any climate. The Gen IV plants, which are all still in the research stage, would all deliver much higher temperatures than current light water reactors. This higher temperature is desirable for higher heat-to-electrical conversion efficiency, but also makes a good match with thermal storage. The DOE has developed a compound called solar salt, with which 12 hours of thermal energy at 565C can be stored for only about $0.50 per Watt-electric at a solar thermal plant (when couple to a nuclear power plant an additional turbine and generator set is required, so the cost is more like $1/Watt). The round trip energy efficiency is an amazing 99% (for 100MW or larger size with lots of thermal insulation).
Thermal energy storage also has the useful property (unlike CAES) that a backup natural gas (or renewable hydrogen) burner can be used to provide power when the storage is completely empty, thus providing firm capacity.
Such a system would be a good fit for matching daily load swings. For smoothing the multi-day fluctuations in wind power by itself, it would be rather pricey. But as part of a combined system, using 1 or so days of storage, geographic aggregation of windfarms, and dispatchable loads (e.g. desalinization or hydrogen production), it might work.
[Wilmot, I would not recommend CO2 cracking for energy storage, as the products would be oxygen and carbon monoxide - much more poisonous that what I'd want stored in my backyard.]
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Tue, 2009-12-08 01:25 — Nathan WilsonWilmotMcCutchen said:
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Thu, 2009-11-26 15:39 — Wilmot McCutchentangping said:
good news for everyone
spend some of your time to have a look
http://www.nikebing.com
http://www.nikebing.com
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Thu, 2009-11-26 02:36 — tang pingNathan Wilson said:
Stephen, this quote "just talk on the facts with real technology that is available today" is really short sited.
We need to be hopeful, but realistic about what technology is likely to happen in the future. There is a very high certainty that technology (like nuclear plant construction) that existed in the 1970s can be resurrected/rediscovered.
On the other hand, there is a very poor likelihood that solar power will ever match the price of electricty from coal and nuclear, at least for most parts of the world. The root cause of the high price is the diluteness and time-variability of the resource.
"Renewable advocates put energy efficiency and conservation at the top of the list because it is the cheapest and fastest..."
I agree that efficiency and conservation are wonderful answers to the question of "how can we reduce our emissions/fossil fuel use by 10% in the next couple of decades, compared to BasU". I have not seen anything that would make be believe that they are credible answers for a 50-90% reduction, except as part of a combined program which has nuclear power as its cornerstone.
"Faced with no commercial plants being built in the USA for 10 years...".
I'm pretty sure that was due to a flattening of demand due to efficiency improvements, the long life of existing coal plants, and cheap natural gas. Now the future price/availability of gas is a big worry, and existing coal plant have their heads on the chopping block anyway due to pollution concerns.
"the only commercial [nuclear waste] repository that was even planned has collapsed..."
I agree that the failure of Yucca mountain indicates weak support for nuclear power. It also indicates poor scientific literacy in the US, and in the environmental movement. However, since the main strengths of the Yucca mountain proposal were that the used fuel would be secure and retrievable, features which it has in common with dry cask interim storage, we can clearly continue our nuclear program without Yucca.
There is simply no hurry to be rid of our used fuel. It is obviously hard to predict what the world will be like in 200 years. It may be that thorium powered LFTRs will be the dominant energy source. But the uranium fueled IFR could win out (with its need for a huge startup load of plutonium), and if it does, we'll need lots of used nuclear fuel to start them up. And if we don't need it, even in the distant future, we'll still have access to the huge percentage of the earth's crust that is not part of the biosphere, and can be used to safely and permantly dispose of unwanted radioactive material.
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Tue, 2009-11-24 23:36 — Nathan WilsonRodAdams said:
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Sat, 2009-11-21 20:37 — Rod AdamsStephenGloor said:
I see so obviously you like to 'win' the discussion even when the other party, who has a life, graciously withdraws after an interesting discussion.
So lets summerise the nuclear side of the argument. You neatly illustrated the complete seperation between reality and theory the most nuclear power people have. Faced with no commercial plants being built in the USA for 10 years you simply and falsely claim that this was due to over regulation when evidence was presented that it is due to the risk of nuclear reactors are toxic to investors.
When confronted with real costs and real build time for nuclear reactors you either invoke imaginary technology or Chinese reactors that cannot be duplicated anywhere else. You claim that the waste problem is solved however the only commercial repository that was even planned has collapsed leaving the thousands of tons of spent nuclear fuel building up stored insecurely at reactors.
The fact is that concentrating on supply you miss the elephant in the room that our patterns of energy use are unsustainable. Renewable advocates put energy efficiency and conservation at the top of the list because it is the cheapest and fastest way to save emissions and also it is completely necessary no matter what the solution. In your nuclear arrogance you dismiss this, as your solution is not to change in any way but just supply your way out of the problem without recognising that this may prove to be impossible.
Renewables require grid upgrades, most of which we need anyway no matter what the final solution is. One of your sycophants mentions that the load following problem can be solved by the smart grid. This is the same smart grid that you claim is too expensive to build!
Finally you emerge from a discussion where equal points were put on either side and claim victory where to any outside observer no such thing happened. Is this how you 'win' nuclear discussions - wear the 'opponent' out until he gives up and then claim victory?
If you want to talk to me about energy and the future how about you leave the attitude out and just talk on the facts with real technology that is available today.
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Sat, 2009-11-21 19:39 — Stephen GloorRodAdams said:
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Sat, 2009-11-21 19:06 — Rod AdamsBill Hannahan said:
Imagine that the terrorist attack on 9-11 never took place. Instead, suppose that on a busy weekday morning at about11 AM , a design defect in the floor attach fittings of a World
Trade Center
building caused a mid level floor to collapse on to the floor below it.
That started a chain reaction collapse that brought the building down. The upper floors tipped into the other WTC tower, triggering the same defect and bringing it down.
There is no evacuation because there is no warning, and 40,000 people die in 30 seconds.
A Boeing 747 takes off with a full load of fuel on a long international flight. One minute after takeoff it flies through the wake of another jumbo jet. The turbulence causes an undetected crack in the vertical fin to propagate, and the fin snaps off. The 747 yaws sideways, rolls onto its back and dives down through the roof of a large sports arena holding the national championship basketball game.
200,000 pounds of fuel atomizes on impact with the floor and erupt in an enormous fireball inside the building, consuming all the oxygen and incinerating 40,000 people on live HD worldwide television.
The EPA, in its analysis, puts a value of $7.4 million on the loss of a human life.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eed.nsf/webpages/MortalityRiskValuation.html
The loss in each case would be $296 billion for human life, plus the property loss.
The WTC did not carry this level of insurance. Should they have been prevented from constructing those buildings without adequate insurance?
The airlines do not carry this level of insurance, should the airlines be grounded for lack of adequate insurance coverage?
Suppose that a biogenetics scientist in a major pharmaceutical industry accidentally develops a virus that is more contagious than the common cold and more deadly than the HIV virus. He contaminates himself and his family, the virus spreads around the world and kills half the population. That would be a twenty four thousand trillion dollar loss. All the money in the world would not cover that loss.
Should we shut down the entire drug industry and go back to life without medicine because it is not insured for all possible accidents?
Dam failures have killed 8000 people in theU.S.
http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/damfailure/pdf/fema-94-inflow-design-floods.pdf
In 1975 a single dam failure inChina
killed about 30,000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam
Dams in theU.S.
are not insured for the maximum imaginable loss. Should we tear down all dams
and give up our hydroelectric power.
Coal plants are killing over 20,000 Americans each year. That is a $148 billion loss each year that the coal plants are not paying for, a virtual subsidy.
You are holding a wedding reception for 150 people in your home. An F5 tornado sucks your home and its contents up to 1,000 feet, grinds it into small pieces, and deposits the mess in a field 2 miles away, killing everybody.
The tornado loss is $1.11 billion plus the property loss. Are you carrying that much liability insurance on your house? If not, should you be denied the privilege of owning a home?
If we required every corporation and individual to obtain insurance coverage for the worst possible event no matter how unlikely, we would have no civilization at all.
The Price Anderson Act requires that the utilities provides $10 billion in cover without cost to the public or government and without fault needing to be proven. It covers power reactors, research reactors, and all other nuclear facilities.
It was renewed for 20 years in mid 2005, with strong bipartisan support, and requires individual operators to be responsible for two layers of insurance cover. The first layer is where each nuclear site is required to purchase US$ 300 million liability cover which is provided by two private insurance pools. This is financial liability, not legal liability as in European liability conventions.
The second layer is jointly provided by allUS
reactor operators. It is funded through retrospective payments if required of
up to $112 million per reactor per accident collected in annual installments of
$17.5 million (and adjusted with inflation). Combined, the total provision
comes to over $10 billion paid for by the utilities. (The Department of Energy
also provides $10 billion for its nuclear activities.) Beyond this cover and
irrespective of fault, Congress, as insurer of last resort, must decide how
compensation is provided in the event of a major accident.
http://world-nuclear.org/info/inf67.html
American Nuclear Insurers is a pool comprised of investor-owned stock insurance companies. About half the pool's total liability capacity comes from foreign sources such as Lloyd's of London. The average annual premium for a single-unit reactor site is $400,000.
I cannot think of any industry that is insured as fully as nuclear power.
Price-Anderson contributes to the illusion that nuclear power is extraordinarily dangerous and needs special insurance coverage. That illusion is partly responsible for our continued dependence on coal which kills 20,000+ Americans each year, perhaps over a million worldwide, and contributes to the potential climate disaster we face.
We do not require Honda to cover the risk of BMW. We do not require United Air Lines to cover the risk of Northwest airlines. We do not put drug companies at risk for the mistakes of other drug companies. It is not fair to require companies to assume risk of other companies for which they have no control.
Price-Anderson is not a nuclear power subsidy; it is a handicap, a burden that no other industry bears, and it does more harm than good. Like Stephen, I support the repeal of Price-Anderson and treating nuclear power like other industries.
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Sat, 2009-11-21 17:41 — Bill HannahanRodAdams said:
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Sat, 2009-11-21 07:14 — Rod AdamsCharlesBarton said:
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Sat, 2009-11-21 03:31 — Charles BartonBill Hannahan said:
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Sat, 2009-11-21 02:41 — Bill HannahanStephenGloor said:
I live in Perth, Western Australia that has 40degC days. I do know what it is like however Texas like anywhere will benefit from wider distribution of power in the new smart grid. Sure it is going to be expensive however as you keep on ignoring the central platform of renewables is energy efficiency and conservation. You have ignored the contribution to this just from upgrading the grid that the EPRI reported on. Most of the work on the grid will have to be done anyway no matter what eventual solution wins out.
All solutions have problems. The achillies heel of renewables is variability that can only be solved by distribution and storage. However look at the benefits. With distributed storage the grid is smarter and more resilient. Power events can be coped with more easily and the grid will be less of a target as it will be harder to break one central point.
Nuclear has different problems. Only 50% of the demand can be met by conventional nuclear reactors. The next 30% will have to be load following nukes that are more expensive than conventional. By you own admission nuclear power plants in the USA would not work without the Price Anderson act to lower the liability in the case of an accident. Now you have to make 45% CF nukes work where 90%CF nukes have not been built for 20 years because of commercial reasons. This can only be done by changing the whole political idea of the USA into a state run power system where profit does not matter to make load following nukes a reality. And then you will still be burning heaps of gas in peaking plants. The type of nuke you favour, that incidently I favour as well, does not exist yet and therefore cannot be counted on until it does.
Most climate scientist will tell you that the need is for change is desperate however nuclear power plants are slow to construct and expensive. Silly renewables are fast to construct and far less expensive. Silly energy efficiency is the cheapest and fastest of the lot - far faster than either renewables or nuclear.
As silly as renewables seem to you they are by far the fastest and best method of reducing emissions fast than any nuclear solution. The cult of nuclear is just as silly when you consider fundamental problems like cost, waste and proliferation are just swept under the carpet as solved when they are clearly are not.
Anyway I think as interesting has this conversation has been we have come as far as I want to go as I do not want to risk "Ender fatigue" or Charles or Bill fatigue.
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Fri, 2009-11-20 22:07 — Stephen GloorCharlesBarton said:
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Fri, 2009-11-20 14:34 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
Not sure if you are getting this or are being deliberately obtuse. Right at the moment what happens in Texas on these days? The peaking generators are running flat out and everything that can generate electricity is thrown on the grid to keep it going. Smart demand management will mitigate some of the peaking load however we will have to burn gas exactly as we do now as peaking generators are only gas turbines or hydro at the moment. In the future the gas will come from renewable sources.
Additionally Texas will be connected to the wider grid and end its isolation which is part an parcel of the renewable smart grid that has greater connectivity. Renewables plus connectivity is about the same price as nuclear alone if you consider the real costs of nuclear. Renewables plus connectivity do not require nuclear waste storage and transport which nuclear advocates routinely ignore. Nor do they require international inspection agencies. Remember your nuclear solution must be a worldwide not just for Texas. I notice that Iraq wants nuclear back.
"You claim that only solar stations that require 24/7 power need storage, but actually a lot of generation capacity is devoted to 16/7 and 16/5 power."
No, solar plants need storage to minimise the amount of gas they burn in auxilary boilers - the more storage the less gas. Also as they are networked gas is a last resort if no other station can supply the power.
"How much is a bit of gas? What you describe as a bit of gas, might turn out to be massive amounts. How much of the time will the gas be kept burning?"
With 7 hours of storage a load following solar station will burn gas for about 15% of the time on average. A station running in baseload mode will use more hence the need for more storage. Also what you are not getting is that this will be a networked system with smart demand management as well as the ability to manage energy flows from other place where there is a surplus.
Finally the price of renewables is lower demand hence the emphasis renewable advocates place on energy conservation and efficiency. If you think that the problem is solvable just by adding nukes then you are sadly mistaken. The problem is not solvable just by adding renewables either. We have to fundamentally change our energy use.
<have to go now>
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Thu, 2009-11-19 20:26 — Stephen GloorBill Hannahan said:
A preview option would be nice.
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Thu, 2009-11-19 16:57 — Bill HannahanBill Hannahan said:
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Thu, 2009-11-19 16:54 — Bill HannahanBill Hannahan said:
[Since only 70% of the electricity entering the CAES facility reaches the consumer, the wind producer must add 30% more capacity to compensate for the energy loss.]
It is actually a little worse than that Charles. For example, to deliver 1000 kWh's to the customer the wind producer must make 1,429 kWh (1,000/0.7), so you actually must make 43% more kWh's than you would with a conventional plant.
If the wind producer wants 5 cents/kWh his share of the customer’s bill is 7.1 cents/kWh. If the CAES owner wants 4 cents/kWh and the utility wants 4 cents/kWh to distribute the energy we are up to 15.1 cents/kWh. Now add taxes and any other fees you can think of.
[Combined Cycle Gas Turbines and can vary quite quickly - enough to follow the load.]
Stephen, please provide a reference for this claim. How fast can CCGT’s slew? What is the thermal efficiency of a CCGT running off design point, say at 60% rated power?
[from Diesendorf reference; However, when wind power supplies up to 20% of electricity generation, these additional costs are still relatively small.]
At 1600 on the day of the ERCOT emergency the grid was running smoothly at 31.5 GW. Between 1630 and 1830 load increased to 33.5 GW. Wind dropped from almost 2GW to 0.4 GW. ERCOT was forced to cut power to some customers when backup plants were not able to make up the difference of 3.6 GW.
http://interchange.puc.state.tx.us/WebApp/Interchange/Documents/27706_114_577769.PDF
So the wind was only 6% of load, but it still caused problems. Had it been 20% the wind drop would have been three times larger. And 20% wind is not going to solve our energy problem.
When nuclear plants use storage facilities to take advantage of peak daytime pricing they will be able to use 100% of the storage facilities capacity factor every day while wind and solar will average 40-60% due to periods without enough wind or too much wind. That will make the economics of using storage for nuclear more favorable than with intermittent sources.
[Also any renewable system will include smart demand management and before any supply solution is put in place the demand side will be looked at first. This demand side management is a glaring omission from any nuclear advocates plan however it will be necessary for any successful future power solution.]
Many people think that the smart grid will make renewables more competitive against nuclear. In reality it will suppress daytime peak demand and raise nighttime load. As daytime peaks are flattened, peak $/MWh will also be flattened hurting solar. Moreover, nighttime rates will climb as more and more electric vehicles charge up at night and deferred loads turn on. The smart grid will allow nuclear plant owners to increase their cash flow more than the renewables without using storage.
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Thu, 2009-11-19 14:51 — Bill HannahanCharlesBarton said:
On winter days in the late afternoon and early evenings, when very little solar power is available, Texas power demands can rise to close to 40 Gws, with as little as 300 MWs of wind generated electricity available. This would require a reserve capable of generating up to 40 GWs of electricity for a period of time. You suggest using natural gas. This would of course introduce another form of redundancy into the system. You would need to keep upwards of 40 GWs of natural gas generating capacity in Texas alone. In addition there is the double redundancy of Solar for day, and wind for night. There is also the redundancy to compensate for wind capacity factors, and the redundancy to feed power into storage systems. That is quite a lot of redundancy for a renewable power system, but hay it is al going to be paid for by government subsidies.
You claim that only solar stations that require 24/7 power need storage, but actually a lot of generation capacity is devoted to 16/7 and 16/5 power. In order to provide 16 hours of power output, solar plants must be able to operate at 67% of capacity, and in winter months that would require a tripple gathering field. Day time peak power demand does not coincide with solar intensity, so even for daytime peak outputs you may need strorage, and in winter redundant capacity.
You confuse improvements of the grid with massive grid extensions.
EG Preston, an electrical engineer who designs transmission systems for renewable facilities, stated that an all renewable system would require California 25,000 miles of new 500 kV electrical lines, plus another 50,000 miles of of lines to back up the California grid on windless nights.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-e...
You claim that wind will back up solar at night, and that natural gas will back up both. You would thus produce a triply redundant system. With similar capacities for solar, wind and natural gas taking turns supplying electricity to the system. Put hay that is not going to cost, because it is all going to be covered by government subsidies, right?
Your questions about whether coal fired plants can be converted is silly. Most coal fired plants are located by rivers or other bodies of water. Nuclear plants size can simply be limited to the amount of coolant water available. Site suitability cannot be determined without surveys, but that would be the case for any proposed nuclear or renewables site.
How much is a bit of gas? What you describe as a bit of gas, might turn out to be massive amounts. How much of the time will the gas be kept burning?
Water shortages are far less a problem for nuclear power plants than they are for desert based solar thermal power plants. 60% of the American population lives near the sea cost and more live close to the Great Lakes. It would take a long time to exhaust the great lakes as a water resource, and an unlimited amount of water can be drawn from the sea. Major rivier systems are extremely reliable as sources of water, and it is possible to design air cooled reactors. (Note: Barry Brook discusses water issues in a post today.)
A propaganda source that is notorious for its many errors. The statement statement you quote borders on racism, since it claims that China will built only a third of its stated objective of 60 new reactors by 2020, and it completely ignore the reactor construction plans of India, while slighting the ambitious plans of Japan and South Korea. India alone has announced plans to build reactor capable of producing 40 GWs of electricity, far more than the world total the report acknowledges. Find a more reliable and less racially biased source to quote. In addition the statement does not mention that the United Kingdom plans to build nuclear power plants on as many as 10 sites, with as much as 40% of its electricity coming from nuclear sources by 2025.
You claim that the nuclear industry is in decline. The facts I just mentioned show that it is not.
You greatly underestimate American and world capacities to develop nuclear supply chains.
You claim that the nuclear industry cannot survive without massive gifts from the government, yet it is wind industry spokes persons who constantly insist that they cannot keep survive without massive government support, In fact the wind industry receives over 10 times the subsidy per kW hour produced that nuclear does. The wind industry will never be anywhere close to self sufficient.
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Thu, 2009-11-19 14:34 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
No I am not unaware of it. However as it has been explained to you on more than one occasion a submarine is not a power plant. What is imaginary is a commercially operated small nuclear power plant. There is no question that nuclear power plants can be made small - the question is whether the resulting power plant is economic and would be built by anyone. So while they do not exist for me to order one they are imaginary.
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Thu, 2009-11-19 07:12 — Stephen GloorRodAdams said:
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Thu, 2009-11-19 06:08 — Rod AdamsRodAdams said:
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Thu, 2009-11-19 05:47 — Rod AdamsStephenGloor said:
Only the stations with large storage will need the oversize collection areas. The load following stations will only need one or two hours of storage. The large storage stations will also have gas backup so they will be able to run 24X7 no matter what the weather conditions if they are needed. Additionally as the grid is a system the large storage stations can fill their storage with wind power or anything else that is in surplus. This can be done because at some times the wind will be in excess of demand. In this case the solar stations can stop contributing electricity to the grid and just put heat into storage for later. This creates a virtual collection area that will oversize the actual physical collection area without having to build collectors.
Upgrading the grid and building new transmission lines will benefit everybody:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/epri-seeks-big-gains-in-tran...
"On the transmission side, utilities and grid operators could benefit from increasing the already high voltages on some power lines, using more advanced, lower loss conductors, and finding ways to move power from congested, high-loss transmission corridors to those with lower loads and better efficiency, she said.
Bringing such technologies as high voltage direct current transmission lines and superconducting cables to new transmission systems could help (see Green Light post and Tres Amigas: Triple-Linking Transmission Grids)."
We can save massive amount of energy just by upgrading and extending our creaking grids which has the side benefit of bringing power from distant renewable resources to central demand centers. You have exactly the opposite problem. How are you going to power far flung rural communities with nuclear power? Without bringing in imaginary technology large nuclear power plants will have to run thousands of kilometers of new transmission lines to connect low population centers that may now be powered by small fossil fuelled generators. So at the moment with current technology you have the same problem in reverse. Additionally as noted in the texas frequency event one of the contributing factors was the lack of an ability to send power from other regions to the one suffering the problem. Even if the grid is all nuclear you will still benefit from better transmission lines to cope with 1GW reactors tripping off unexpectantly.
"You forecast the effects of inflating materials and labor costs on the nuclear industry, but fail to note that those costs will also effect the cost of Solar and wind facilities. You criticize my use of EIA 2016 estimates of the relative costs of wind, solar and nuclear, but then you turn around and argue that in 2016 nuclear will be more expensive than it is now. You cannot have it both ways."
It will affect the solar and wind sector however as these sectors have less highly specialised parts they are far more readily available. Also the capital cost and knowledge required to setup factories for such parts are far lower than for the corresponding nuclear components. Nuclear is extremely expensive now after 40 years of development. If it has not got cheaper in this time why do you suddenly think that it will now.
"However, that is average capacity and solar thermal in the winter is much less efficient, so you have to add to your gathering fields to meet winter electrical demand, or else face winter blackouts on a regular basis."Or you just burn a bit of gas when required. This is a far cheaper option and will still result in large emission savings particularly if the gas comes from source such as waste biomass. Additionally as previously noted you have an integrated system not isolated power stations. The energy in winter may not be required from the solar power stations.
"Nuclear plants can be located close to existing transmission lines, and in fact nuclear advocates suggest recycling old coal fired power plants as nuclear facilities in order to take advantage of existing grid connections, water rights, cooling towers and other power plant related infrastructure. "That may be true however how can you be sure all the old coal fired plants can be converted? Do they have enough water? Remember also that some of the plants may be marginal at best. If you then place a large nuke there you may get summer blackouts because the cooling water is too warm. Remember why we are doing this - global warming. The proportion of hot days will get greater in the future and so will extreme heat events. These heat events have already cause the shutdown of nuke plants in France and the USA as well as coal plants having to shut down here in Australia. So this plan of nuclear advocates simply may not work.
To take account of global warming for the alleged 80 year life of the nuclear plant you may well have to disperse them almost as much as wind farms just to get cooling water you can count on.
"You state: "The fact that nuclear has been declining repeats it louder and better than anything I could say." No one except you and Amory Lovins thinks that nuclear is declining."It is just us eh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
"The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 states that "even if Finland and France each builds a reactor or two, China goes for an additional 20 plants and Japan, Korea or Eastern Europe add a few units, the overall worldwide trend will most likely be downwards over the next two decades".[42] With long lead times of 10 years or more, it will be difficult to maintain or increase the number of operating nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. The one exception to this outcome would be if operating lifetimes could be substantially increased beyond 40 years on average. This seems unlikely since the present average age of the operating nuclear power plant fleet in the world is 25 years"
"This is not the image of an industry in decline. "No it is the image of an industry with grandiose plans that is has a long history of not delivering on:
http://www.vermontlaw.edu/Academics/Environmental_Law_Center/Institutes_...
"The study documents the reasons that Wall Street considers nuclear reactors to be risky ventures, many of which are likely to fail, requiring a downgrading the financial ratings of utilities. The loan guarantees are a bald face attempt to override the judgment of the capital markets, which will leave taxpayers and ratepayers holding the bag.
Misallocating risk and shifting it to taxpayers is exactly what got the big banks in trouble and led to the recent financial meltdown. The irony is that many of the same people who were the loudest critics of bailing the banks out with taxpayer dollars are the very same people who want to force taxpayers and ratepayers to underwrite the nuclear industry."
And again unless you wish to adopt the political system of China you are unlikely to achieve anything like their growth. All these plants are yet to be built and are as imaginary as the IFR or small nukes. Lets see while wind grows at 28% per year and new solar plants come on line.
"No insurance company would provide 10 + billion dollars in insurance protection to nuclear plant owners. Most nuclear plant owners could not afford anything like a 10 billion dollar cleanup and restitution cost and would go bankrupt."So what you are saying is that the nuclear industry is completely not viable after 40 years without this massive gift from the US Government. You are absolutely right and if this act was not in place there would be no nuclear power plants in the USA. Does the term "shooting yourself in the foot" mean anything to you?
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Wed, 2009-11-18 22:59 — Stephen GloorCharlesBarton said:
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Wed, 2009-11-18 10:07 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
Did you read the same report I did?
"Additionally, we show that the complementary intermittencies of wind and solar power, when packaged with the flexibility of hydro and a baseload of geothermal, serve to sufficiently smooth the delivered supply from a renewable portfolio to allow it to follow demand throughout the day."
The baseload can just as easily come from solar thermal hybrids with storage. Not too sure what you are getting at here.
"I read through the first two Diesendorf papers you linked. They do not support your claim, and don't provide any real-world data at all - simply computer models. "
In them are the work that Mark did in capacity credit and optimum wind. They are computer models. As far as I can see neither Hawkins or Lang did any computer modelling at all. The one study that did used unrealistic scenerios that put wind at a disadvantage.
"This statements: "just about everything is lower in cost than nuclear" is repeated so often many people may mistakenly believe it is true. Of course dirty-coal is cheaper than nuclear. Natural gas is cheaper in some parts of the country during most of the past years. Solar cost several times more than nuclear."
I do not need to repeat it. The fact that nuclear has been declining repeats it louder and better than anything I could say. Solar thermal is about the same cost as nuclear however its cost trajectory is down and will be far cheaper in 5 years time as operational experience builds up. Solar PV is a niche product for remote locations and roof-tops where it does and admirable job.
"Most US plants are expeced to breeze through their 40 year inspections and be re-licensed for 60 year total, and perhaps even 80 or more. "
Well that is great however as they are so cheap to run then perhaps we can think about repealing the Price Anderson act and ending nuclear subsidies altogether as obviously nuclear does not need any loan guarantees or anything as it is a viable and cheap power source ready for the new millenium. Would you agree? Also we should be able to force nuclear operators to store their waste in secure geological repositories for the required amount of time - this should be a doddle as well.
"My prediction is that the cost of nuclear power is every bit as likely to come down as the cost of solar thermal"
Not for a long time as nuclear costs have skyrocketed as all sorts of materials and labour are in short supply. Solar thermal does not have the same safety constraints as nuclear and can use more common materials and manufacturing techniques because there is no risk of a radioactive leak if a weld gives way in a CST plant. Nuclear will always be more expensive because of the inherent danger of radioactivity and the corresponding more care and inspection regimes required in the construction.
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Wed, 2009-11-18 00:18 — Stephen GloorNathan Wilson said:
Stephen, your statement, "For instance in a good wind resource the wind could satisfy demand for 80% of the time and still have a .28 CF if the demand is well correlated with supply. "
does not apply in the United States. It may be true in some other country, but if you look at the seasonal wind resource maps (at http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.html), you'll find that the wind is strongest in the Fall and Spring, when electrical load is lowest. If you look at the data from Jacobson's website, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/susenergy2030.html, you'll find that for California (the whole state aggregated), the seasonal and time of day correlations between wind and load are wrong.
I read through the first two Diesendorf papers you linked. They do not support your claim, and don't provide any real-world data at all - simply computer models.
The US Dept of Energy's NREL has studies renewable energy thoroughly, and their data is makes wind look like a great way to compliment a fossile fuel energy system, and that's all.
This statements: "just about everything is lower in cost than nuclear" is repeated so often many people may mistakenly believe it is true. Of course dirty-coal is cheaper than nuclear. Natural gas is cheaper in some parts of the country during most of the past years. Solar cost several times more than nuclear.
And wind also costs more on a fleet average basis. That's what determines our electric bills, the mix of old a new power plant costs - a nuke with a 60 year life is cheaper than a windfarm with a 20 year life, although the levelized cost does not show this.
"The situation now is the aging nuclear plants have paid their bills and now are cheap after 30 years of operation and subsidies". This quote says it all. Oh, except that there is growing evidence that 30 years may be quite young for a nuke. Most US plants are expeced to breeze through their 40 year inspections and be re-licensed for 60 year total, and perhaps even 80 or more.
One more: "8 billion dollar nuclear plants". Assuming 1.4GWe with 90% CF, 8760 hours/year, $.10/kWh ... That's $1.1 billion a year worth of electricity production, not bad. The same as you'd get from $56B worth of roof-top PV.
My prediction is that the cost of nuclear power is every bit as likely to come down as the cost of solar thermal - they are both old-fashioned manufacturing of old designs that have much room for improvement. PV will come down faster, but will still never be more than 10% of our electricity, due to the low capacity factor and high cost of storage.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 23:02 — Nathan WilsonStephenGloor said:
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Tue, 2009-11-17 20:23 — Stephen GloorStephenGloor said:
At least they have been done however as they do not say what you want them to I guess you will go in ignoring them and promoting un-peer reviewed and inaccurate studies that tell you what you want to hear.
"Ya but that mechanism always involves the emissions of enormous amounts of CO2, expensive redundancies, and a large number of long and expensive electrical transmission lines. "
It funny how you do not read the things that you post. First of all the frequency event was controlled by paid loads that cut-off to cut demand. How is that CO2 intensive? Also the redundancies are there in place to cope with variabilities of fossil fuel and nuclear generation that has been there for 20 years or more and will be in place if nuclear is the final solution - so how is wind worse than nuclear in this regard.
"More expensive redundancies, the US EIA estimated 2016 levelized cost for PV is $0.3957 per kWh. The US EIA estimated 2016 levelized cost for solar thermal is $0.2637 per kWh. The US EIA estimated 2016 levelized cost for nuclear is $0.107. "
Also what is really funny is that you have suddenly switched to estimates in 2016 for justifying you nuclear dream. In what universe can a forecast 7 years ahead be counted on to be more than 50% accurate. How about using real costs today instead of imaginary ones.
"Not true, I advocate the development low cost, small factory built, advanced technology reactors that can produce part time electricity more cheaply than CCGTs can."
Ah I see now. Not content with using imaginary figures you also invoke imaginary technology as well which seems to be the same track all our conversations take. You can't seem to make nuclear work without some imaginary technology that is "just around the corner" and "if only the greenies would let us develop it".
"Unlike the wind and solar subsidies no money is paid by the government to nuclear producers, and nuclear producers get no generous tax brakes. "
Yeah right - I really have nothing more to say if you are so deluded that you think the nuclear industry is not subsidised. Solar and wind are at the start of their industry and subsidies will be phased out. Nuclear is a mature industry which should be able to stand or fall on its own merits by now. Subsidies were OK at the start of nuclear in the 60s and 70s however the fact that it still needs in 2009 means that you are really flogging a dead horse here.
"There is no difference between adding boron to coolant water during start up or shut downs and adding boron to coolant water to control power output. "
And you missed the part about extra radioactive waste and the different control rods and operating characteristics?
"Why do you think reactors have to cost 8 billion dollars?"
Because that is what they cost. Invoking Indian and Chinese reactors as proof is becoming a standard tactic for falsifying the cost of nuclear. Again when the first reactor is completely built in the USA to a Chinese or Indian design for 1.1 billion dollars and the accounts are independantly verified I will be the first to concede that you where right and I was wrong all along and nuclear is both cheap and green.
Until then how about we use the REAL nuclear figures of approx $4000 per kW overnight costs rising to around $8000 per kW fully finished and generating power.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 20:21 — Stephen GloorRogerBrown said:
"Wind is a vital part of the overall renewable solution however more important is energy conservation and efficiency which is number one followed by supply side considerations."
Conservation and efficiency are relevant to the problem of integrating a large percentage of wind energy into the grid only insofar as they might allow dispatchable generation of limited availability (such as biomass and geothermal) to play a more significant role in compensating for the variability of wind generation.
I am not sure what you mean by supply side considerations. All of the smart grid applications I have read about (e.g. ice storage, thermal storage via heat pumps, V2G, etc) are effectively forms of energy storage. Implementing such technologies involves building and installing new physical infrastructure and not just clever management of demand. The cost of this new infrastructure has to be factored into the costs of a renewables based generation system.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 15:53 — Roger BrownCharlesBarton said:
The boron system can compensate for xenon burnout reactivity changes and maintain the reactor in the cold shutdown condition. Thus, backup and emergency shutdown provisions are provided by mechanical and chemical shim control systems which satisfy General Design Criterion 26. Reactivity changes due to fuel depletion are accommodated with the boron system.
Boron is harmless and reactor coolant water containing dissolved boron is simply dumped. This statement from Westinghouse illustrates the normal use of boron to control reactivity in a reactor. When reactors are started up, boron is often added to coolant water in order to operate the reactor at part power for test purposes. Boron is often gradually withdrawn from the reactor in order to slowly bring it up to full power. There is no difference between adding boron to coolant water during start up or shut downs and adding boron to coolant water to control power output.
8. The other thing is who gets the short straw of operating 8 billion dollar nuclear plants at 45% CF?
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Tue, 2009-11-17 13:19 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
Actually they did do it long ago as the peer reviewed studies are from 1988. In them it clearly states that the special case of an isolated wind farm with a backup gas generator will need the most amount of backup and save the least amount of CO2. However this is not what happens in reality and will happen less and less in the future. Unfunded and non peer reviewed researchers should not be counted on in a scientific argument when researchers that do publish in the literature give much more accurate answers.
"On of the big mistakes wind advocates make is to assume that the wind is constantly blowing at an average speed, so if we capture wind in enough locations we will get constant output. This is not the case. First wind output over large areas varies between day and night,"
Wind advocates make no such mistake. In none of the literature is any sort of statement of constant output. What does happen is that when the number of wind farms is large and dispersed the changes happen more slowly and often are better correlated with demand that also varies by the same amount that wind supply varies. As electricity grids have had to cope with demand fluctuations from day one there have always been mechanisms to cope with both fluctuating demand and supply. One of the mistakes I see more often is that nuclear advocates assume that supply from nuclear power plants is unchanging and unvarying 24X7 which is also very far from the truth.
"Archer and Jacobson demonstrated that a small percentage of wind would be reliable enough to be considered base load electricity, at least by their standards. Thus 15% of a wind generators capacity can be considered base load 87.5% of the time, and 21% of wind capacity can be considered base load 79% of the time, but on hot summer days, that capacity factor drops to less than 10% in Texas."
The answer I think is in your complete lack of understanding of systems and how the future electricity grid is as far from the Victorian age as a modern PC is from an IBM card sorting machine. You say on hot sunny days the wind will be low, right when the solar thermal and PV systems will be at their maximum. Also any renewable system will include smart demand management and before any supply solution is put in place the demand side will be looked at first. This demand side management is a glaring omission from any nuclear advocates plan however it will be necessary for any successful future power solution.
"In order to provide reliable electricity to the United States while eliminating the carbon emissions of fossil fuel back ups, a great deal of wind redundancy would be requited."
Once again you are isolating elements from a system and expecting them to do the whole job. Wind alone is not and will never be the whole solution nor does anyone expect it to be. Additionally it is not the poorer for not being the whole solution any more than a car door is somehow deficient because it cannot transport your shopping from the grocery store on its own. Wind is a vital part of the overall renewable solution however more important is energy conservation and efficiency which is number one followed by supply side considerations. Nuclear is also part of a system and cannot function without peaking generators and ancillary services which also require fossil fuels at the moment.
"You raise the issue of capacity factor matched to demand, but in fact Texas wind will never fill consumer demand in proportion to its capacity factor, because consumer demand is frequently low when capacity factors are high, and capacity factors are often low or at least lower when consumer demands peaks."
Then it will be exactly as it is now when baseload generators that cannot be switched off are running flat out at night when there is no demand. Also Texas as large as it is is smaller than the whole of the USA. Once again you are isolating systems and areas and drawing conclusions that suit your agenda.
"There are in fact several categories of power generators, and what sets them appart is cost and reliability. Nuclear is the lowest cost, and is highly reliable, thus is treated as nuclear is prime base load."
Which is probably your biggest untruth. If this was truly the case then the USA would be 100% nuclear powered today, which it isn't, because just about everything is lower in cost than nuclear even with generous subsidies. You have in fact a declining nuclear segment generating less and less of the USA's electricity. The situation now is the aging nuclear plants have paid their bills and now are cheap after 30 years of operation and subsidies. So cheap in fact that they are to be refurbished rather than new nuclear built. Nuclear runs 24X7 because this is the only way that they can pay the bills and also is the only way the nuke can operate.
"CCGT may be used on a 16/5 basis, or for intermediate loads, as demand rises during the day, Finally OCGT are used to cover peak load requirements, and load balancing. "
These can run this way because they are cheap enough per kW to build so it is still economical to run them at lower CFs. They are also a vital part of any nuclear solution and will remain if nuclear becomes the baseload of choice instead of renewables.
"Pressurized Water Reactors can alter their power output with simple alterations of their control systems that do not require any changes in the design of the reactor. It is simply a matter of how the controls are used. "
Can they? are you sure about this?
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf40.html
"All France's nuclear capacity is from PWR units. There are two ways of varying the power output from a PWR: control rods, and boron addition to the primary cooling water. Using normal control rods to reduce power means that there is a portion of the core where neutrons are being absorbed rather than creating fission, and if this is maintained it creates an imbalance in the fuel, with the lower part of the fuel assemblies being more reactive that the upper parts. Adding boron to the water diminishes the reactivity uniformly, but to reverse the effect the water has to be treated to remove the boron, which is slow and costly, and it creates a radioactive waste."
I am not sure that the NRC would view these modifications in the same light as you. It is not simply a matter of "how the controls are used" but significant modifications and operational changes.
The other thing is who gets the short straw of operating 8 billion dollar nuclear plants at 45% CF? How can you possibly force an operator to use a nuke in this way when it would be far cheaper to build a CCGT for 1/10 of the cost even if NG went through the roof. The only way is like in France to have a state electricity companies.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 11:21 — Stephen GloorCharlesBarton said:
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Tue, 2009-11-17 09:41 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
No that is absolutely and completely wrong. A CF of .28 means on average over a given period that the output of a system will be .28 of nameplate. However if the average demand is also .28 of the nameplate capacity of the resource then it will be powered completely by generating resource in question.
To accurately measure the savings from wind you need to sum the amount that wind is generating in 10 minute minute intervals over a long time period. For instance in a good wind resource the wind could satisfy demand for 80% of the time and still have a .28 CF if the demand is well correlated with supply. Again simplistic analysis will almost always give you the wrong answer.
"I'm not sure where this data comes from. "
http://www.sustainabilitycentre.com.au/publics.html
"Martin B, Diesendorf M 1983, ‘The economics of large-scale wind power in an optimally mixed CEGB electricity grid’, Energy Policy 11: 259-266. Download
Martin B, Diesendorf M 1980, ‘The capacity credit of wind power: a numerical model’, Proc. 3rd Int. Symp. on Wind Energy Systems, Copenhagen. Cranfield UK: BHRA Fluid Engineering, 555-564.For revised version published by Simulation Society of Australia, see DownloadCarlin JB, Diesendorf M 1983, ‘Analysis of some wind speed data from southern Australia with reference to potential wind energy conversion’, Wind Engineering 7: 147-160.
Martin B, Diesendorf M 1982, ‘Optimal mix in electricity grids containing wind power’, Electrical Power & Energy Systems 4 (3):155-161. Download
Haslett J, Diesendorf M 1981, ‘The capacity credit of wind power: a theoretical analysis’, Solar Energy 26: 391-401.
Diesendorf M, Martin B 1980, ‘Integration of wind power into Australian electricity grids without storage: a computer simulation’, Wind Engineering 4 (4): 211-226. (Note: This paper does not investigate capacity credit or optimal mix.)"
"Or is the intent of your statement to make the wind+backup have the same capacity factor as baseload coal? I don't think that is very relevant, since "baseload" often is also used for load following, and so has a lower capacity factor than nuclear."
Not sure what you are getting at here. From:
http://www.sustainabilitycentre.com.au/BaseloadFallacy.pdf
Have a look at page 4 of this.
Baseload is a type of power station. It is typically a large thermal coal or nuclear plant. Baseload cannot vary quickly and almost all the time is left running flat out. Most normal nuclear power stations are baseload only. France is about the only country that has load following nuclear and they are specially modified to do this.
Intermediate power stations can be coal plants or more commonly Combined Cycle Gas Turbines and can vary quite quickly - enough to follow the load.
As Deisendorf found dispersed wind can replace baseload power stations with certain conditions. However the resulting energy system would always be intermediate as it can be economically varied to suit the load.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 02:20 — Stephen GloorNathan Wilson said:
Stephen said: "Despite wind having a said CF this does not mean that at all times there is .28 wind and .72 gas. "
I'm afraid it does mean that. The best case is for wind and gas being used together for base load, which by definition must total 1.0. A CF of 28% means the average output is 28% of nameplate; of coures it can be higher or lower at any given time, but the average is what determines the annual fuel savings. Trying to match the wind with the load is worse than baseload, since wind is usually weaker during the day when load is higher.
and Stephen said, "Yes they are however when you do the study properly it is found that dispersed wind can replace baseload power stations of equal average capacity with one third to one fifth gas backup."
I'm not sure where this data comes from. The 2007 study from Stanford did find that a disperse collection of wind farms have a more consistent output, but the effect is rather modest: a collection of wind farm, spread over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, each with a 0.4 capacity factor, would have an equivalent 0.5 capacity factor when aggregated together (if the top 20% of nameplate capacity was discarded, which wastes just 2% of the total energy).
Or is the intent of your statement to make the wind+backup have the same capacity factor as baseload coal? I don't think that is very relevant, since "baseload" often is also used for load following, and so has a lower capacity factor than nuclear.
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Tue, 2009-11-17 01:49 — Nathan WilsonStephenGloor said:
So here is the actual event report:
http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/2008/nr02-27-08"Preliminary reports indicate the frequency decline was caused by a combination of events including a drop in wind energy production at the same time the evening electricity load was increasing, accompanied by multiple power providers falling below their scheduled energy production. In addition, the drop in wind energy led to some system constraints in moving power from the generation in the north zone to load in the west zone, resulting in limitations of balancing energy availability. The wind production dropped from over 1700 megawatts (MW) three hours before the event, down to 300 MW at the point the emergency procedures were activated."
So it was a combination of events that included wind as well as fossil fuel generators. Also the wind went from 1700MW to 300MW in THREE HOURS not 10 minutes as you asserted.
Before sniping at people with "poorly informed" remarks perhaps you can make sure you are properly informed beforehand. The frequency event you referred to was caused as much by fossil fuel generators tripping out at the wrong time. Normal measures went into place and the frequency was restored. These events happened long before wind was added to the system.
Additionally please note the following:
"In addition, the drop in wind energy led to some system constraints in moving power from the generation in the north zone to load in the west zone, resulting in limitations of balancing energy availability."
Indicates that what is needed is larger interconnectors. If this had been a nuclear plant tripping off 1000MW, as they do for a variety of reasons, exactly the same thing would have happened.
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Mon, 2009-11-16 21:58 — Stephen GloorCharlesBarton said:
"Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said a decline in wind energy production in west Texas occurred at the same time evening electric demand was building as colder temperatures moved into the state.
The grid operator went directly to the second stage of an emergency plan at 6:41 PM CST (0041 GMT), ERCOT said in a statement.
System operators curtailed power to interruptible customers to shave 1,100 megawatts of demand within 10 minutes, ERCOT said. Interruptible customers are generally large industrial customers who are paid to reduce power use when emergencies occur.
No other customers lost power during the emergency, ERCOT said. Interruptible customers were restored in about 90 minutes and the emergency was over in three hours.
ERCOT said the grid's frequency dropped suddenly when wind production fell from more than 1,700 megawatts, before the event, to 300 MW when the emergency was declared."
We are talking then about an drop of 1400 MWs of power at a time when demand was rising rapidly. You seem very poorly informed. I will have more comments tomorrow.
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Mon, 2009-11-16 20:46 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
Yes they are however when you do the study properly it is found that dispersed wind can replace baseload power stations of equal average capacity with one third to one fifth gas backup.
Hawkins assumptions about gas do not take into account the demand at the time and the amount of gas required to make up the difference at the time. Despite wind having a said CF this does not mean that at all times there is .28 wind and .72 gas. It is a dynamic thing that changes on the hour and must be modelled appropriately. The only thing that Hawkins gives is the lower bounds of the CO2 savings where an isolated wind farm is backed up with an isolated gas turbine such as in Esperance, Western Australia. Even there the wind supplies 22% of the demand with only a 15% installed wind capacity. In reality the swings that you cite are not seen in a dispersed system of wind.
Where in the world are there swings of 1000MW in minutes? Please show the output graph to support this claim.
"You also reference "the paper" as a source of your quote, but you do not designate which paper, so it is impossible to respond to your point. "
The quote is from the that you are using as the basis of this latest wind beat up. It is from "Air Emissions Due To Wind And Solar Power, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2009, 43 (2), pp 253–258)". Again the authors here isolated the wind system so it could not take advantage of dispersal. Please do not refer to Peter Lang as an authority because the 'paper' that he wrote has no credibility whatsoever outside the small core of nuclear hard liners.
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Mon, 2009-11-16 20:12 — Stephen GloorCharlesBarton said:
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Mon, 2009-11-16 07:08 — Charles BartonStephenGloor said:
The point is that the proportion of wind is not fixed therefore the amount of backup gas is also not fixed but tied to demand and availability of wind. Simplistic analysis's like Lang and Hawkins make no allowance for this. Langs first 'paper' was critisised because he cherry picked wind farms of different sizes when he could have used the entire wind farm data that was available.
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Mon, 2009-11-16 04:32 — Stephen GloorStephenGloor said:
So it looks like even though they took wind data from four different regions they did not combine them. The simply matched one wind farm with one backup generator - please correct me if I am wrong.
If this is true then no account was taken of dispersal of wind resources smoothing the supply curve. I also failed to notice any reference in the list of references to Mark Diesendorf's work on the capacity credit of dispersed wind - a fairly big omission from a paper that is reporting on CO2 savings of wind.
Once again it seems that the message of dispersed networks of wind farms and solar power stations in not getting through or deliberately missed out.
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Mon, 2009-11-16 01:05 — Stephen GloorPost new comment