My suspicion is that the real goal for many in the movement really is a "no nukes" world where even beneficial uses of nuclear energy somehow disappear. I hope that most people recognize the futility and stupidity of attempting to achieve that result; the atomic genie is not going back into the bottle. However, even a major slowdown in the spread of nuclear energy can help some of the financial and political supporters of the non-proliferation community achieve what I suspect they really want - continued and increased wealth accumulation for the establishment non-nuclear energy interests.
According to the Monitor article, the technology that we are now supposed to worry about is a development known as SILEX (Separation of Isotopes by Laser Excitation). The basic idea behind the technology has been around for several decades, but there is growing evidence that GLE (global laser enrichment, a partnership between GE, Hitachi and Cameco) is getting close to a commercially useful SILEX refinement that will enable uranium enrichment using less input power in a smaller facility than the centrifuges that are already a substantial technological improvement over the ancient gas diffusion technology developed during World War II.
Enrichment represents approximately one half of the total cost of manufacturing commercial nuclear fuel and it accounts for at least 75% of the energy invested in the fuel manufacturing processes. It seems that the very idea of making enrichment cheaper and more cost efficient causes worried hand wringing by people like Henry Sokolski, who make their living raising concerns about nuclear technology developments.
"The history of keeping dangerous nuclear technology secret is pretty poor," says Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington think tank. "An early enrichment approach called 'gaseous diffusion' technology got out and, after that, so did centrifuge technology. The question is: How would we handle this when SILEX gets out?"My view of this development is quite different. Lowering the amount of energy required to produce enriched fuel should be encouraged as a terrific development that can improve the already impressive energy return on investment (EROI) for nuclear energy and lower its "carbon footprint" - if the source of the enrichment electricity is still a mixture that includes fossil fuels.
What prevents a profusion of laser-enrichment plants now is the complexity of the process. But once SILEX is demonstrated, other nations with deep pockets are bound to follow, say Mr. Sokolski and others.
I have no worries that refined SILEX technology would become widely available. GLE is a partnership composed of several large and successful industrial technology conglomerates. GE, in particular, has a long history of fierce protection of its "secret sauce" recipes for a variety of useful chemical, plastic and metal products. When I was in the plastics business, I learned that GE was famous for selling premium products created by combining a variety of commodity plastic materials in a creative way. Their products delivered performance and quality that no one else could match. The GE representatives knew that their materials could demand premium prices, not because of the brand name, but because processors recognized that they were superior to the alternatives.
SILEX is already a classified technology that is protected under the Atomic Energy Act. When it gets implemented with commercially useful machinery and control systems that result in a lower cost enrichment process it is HIGHLY unlikely that the companies who invest in developing that technology will allow it to leak to any competitors. Such leakage would eliminate a competitive advantage that could provide excellent profit margins for decades as GLE sells enrichment services into an already large and established market. If history is any guide, GLE will not use their production cost advantage as a way to compete on the price of the service.
My suspicion is that GLE will use their technology as a way to enable finer control of end product enrichment levels. Creatively applying their proprietary technology could allow nuclear engineers the ability to more flexibly load reactor cores with just the right fuel geometry to enable superior performance that lowers overall electricity production costs.
Anyone who has ever worked with a GE engineer or salesman should understand why I am highly skeptical of pressure groups that assume that technology that the company develops will easily leak out into the market, especially when it is a technology that has a development history similar to that of SILEX. GE people are pretty careful about protecting company intellectual property.
A fiendishly difficult technology, laser isotope separation has worked at the laboratory level but has confounded efforts by at least 20 countries to make it work on a commercial scale, says Charles Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, a signatory to the letter to the NRC.Ferguson goes on to say that it would only be a matter of time before someone else developed commercial capability using the technology. I have less faith in the inevitability of technology developments without the kind of technical skills, experience and leadership that GLE can apply to the task. Fiendishly difficult technology can be solved, but it cannot be solved by just anyone or any group.
Insisting that keeping SILEX out of the market is the only way to protect the world from the risk that some rogue group or outlaw nation might use the process for nefarious uses exposes the real mission - I believe that the non-proliferation community will attempt to stop nuclear energy producers from using any innovation that improves cost and performance. The people who are dedicated to that mission are working to prevent an incredible potential gift to humanity - lower cost, cleaner energy.
Besides the fossil fuel pushers, the other interest group that might be cheering the efforts of the non-proliferation herd are the people who are already investing heavily in centrifuge-based enrichment facilities. URENCO USA, USEC, and Areva will be in direct competition with GEL and have financial motivations for wanting to make their progress a bit more difficult and costly.



















RodAdams said:
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Sun, 2010-05-30 13:27 — Rod AdamsDavid Lewis said:
Obviously, a lot of the people who claim they are concerned about some potentially dangerous aspect of the nuclear power industry trump up concerns that are not genuine, or that have no basis in reality, because they think that by doing so they will succeed with their agenda, which is to shut the entire industry down. The Vermont Yankee controversy is just one recent issue to examine to confirm this point.
And so, it is no wonder that long standing pro nuclear advocates such as Rod Adams have become suspicious of anyone voicing any concern at all about nuclear technology. There are so many who say they are concerned about something such as plant safety or waste disposal who say they want more rigorous studies of the situation or more stringent regulations to protect the public who could care less about making this extremely safe technology safer - all they want is to add so much cost to nuclear power generation that their ultimate agenda, shutting down the entire industry, is achieved.
I have only recently started studying the nuclear industry. But, of all the concerns that I have researched, it is the proliferation issue that is proving to be the most difficult for me to feel comfortable with. I am not yet ready to decide that most people who raise concerns about proliferation of nuclear weapons who have objections to some part of what the nuclear power industry does as a result are just more "antis", as pro nuclear advocates call many of their opponents, pushing their usual more or less hidden agenda of shutting the entire industry down.
I would rather hear arguments about why a specific group can be viewed as just another "anti" with a "no nukes" agenda than the broad brush Rod is employing here.
This Henry Sokolski and his Washington "think tank" Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, for instance: is their concept of "education" to disinform, and if so, what examples exist? Can a pattern be seen in their actions, i.e. can a case be made that what they are really concerned about is an end to the commercial nuclear industry, or are they contributing to the debate about how to limit nuclear weapons proliferation? The same goes for Charles Ferguson and his Federation of American Scientists. Is this group actually composed of scientists for instance, and if so what expertise do they bring to the table? What kind of things do they publish and what actions do they take?
Rod argues that anyone "aiming their fire" at something that would benefit the nuclear power industry who claims that they are concerned about nuclear proliferation just wants to keep things the way they are for the fossil fuel industry so that industry can continue to pile up riches and the nuclear industry can continue to be held back. Coming from a pro nuclear advocate, an argument like this is ridiculous.
It so happens that a large number of pro nuclear advocates and people in the nuclear industry reject climate science. They ridicule those who advocate that action should be taken to decarbonize all power sources to civilization. They are typical climate deniers, who latch onto arguments that seem to make sense while they reject the highest level assessments of the best scientists in the world who have examined all evidence and argument available who say the arguments favored by deniers are not valid.
Now if I were to apply the logic Rod Adams has employed in this post, I would have to ask, who benefits from the activities of pro nuclear advocates who have joined the climate denier crowd? What is the main effect of the actions of those who are presently vociferously and angrily making their concern felt that no regulation or controls be put on the emission of CO2, the primary waste product of the nuclear power industry's chief competitor, the fossil fuel industry? And I'd have to say, using Rod's logic, that these nuclear advocates are pro-nuclear in name only - they, obviously, exist merely to promote the use of fossil fuels, and hence I should listen to nothing they say about nuclear. By the time I find myself making an argument that pro nuclear advocates are actually pro fossil fuel advocates in disguise, I have to think I've slipped over the edge into the preposterous.- reply
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Sun, 2010-05-30 12:32 — David LewisPost new comment