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forecasting

IEA Forecasts Sustained Energy Growth, But No 'Era of Oil Abundance'

December 30, 2013 by Geoffrey Styles
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) in November, looking twenty-plus years into our energy future. The trends it describes add nuance and detail to last year's projections, rather than upending them.[read more]

Systems-Level Thinking: Distinguishing Potential and Profitability

July 24, 2013 by Christos Makridis
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News affects markets because they react to new information indicative of future profitability. The clean tech industry is often in the middle of all of this, as there’s a lot of action happening in the industry.[read more]

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Getting It Wrong: A Brief History of Energy Forecasts

December 21, 2012 by Peter Z. Grossman
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What's Next? via Shutterstock

Recent forecasts argue the U.S. will be energy independent in the next decade or maybe two. Or at least North America will be energy independent, with the U.S. taking the place of Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.  The U.S. will also be a net energy exporter—meaning we will export a greater energy equivalent of...[read more]

Harnessing Energy Efficiency to Overcome a Bleak World Energy Outlook

December 21, 2012 by Sara Hayes

Last month the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2012 and unfortunately the world outlook is not so good. To be more precise, a key conclusion of the report is that “Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more...[read more]

Energy Shortages - Why Malthus Got His Forecast Wrong

December 13, 2012 by Gail Tverberg
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Most of us have heard that Thomas Malthus made a forecast in 1798 that the world would run short of food, and that great famine would result. But most of us don’t understand why he was wrong. This issue is relevant today, as we grapple with the issues of world hunger and of oil consumption that is not growing as rapidly as consumers...[read more]

Why IEA Oil Forecast is Unrealistically High

November 15, 2012 by Gail Tverberg
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The International Energy Agency forecasts that the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030. What the forecasts ignore is the problem of diminishing returns.[read more]

Black swans, an oil spill, hubris and debt

May 9, 2010 by Marc Gunther
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If there is one thing we can learn from the headlines of the past week or so – Market Plunge Baffles Wall Street, Size of Spill in Gulf of Mexico is Larger Than Thought, ‘Amateurish’ Bomb Defused in Times Square—it is that we cannot reliably forecast the future, that the world is bound to surprise us, frequently in unpleasant ways, and...[read more]

The EIA Foresees Failure in Fight Against Climate Change

December 30, 2009 by Charles Barton

Mathematician Mary Hutzler, is an important voice in energy forecasting. Before she left the Energy Information Agency in 2004, Mary had served as both the acting administrator and deputy administrator of the agency. She was also the director of the EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. After 25 years with the agency,...[read more]

Looking for a good forecast?

August 26, 2009 by Michael Giberson

Philip Tetlock – the expert on political expertise – reviews three books on political forecasting for The National Interest, but the problem of selecting a good forecast equally applies in commerce: Reading these three books, it is easy to feel like a frustrated shopper wandering aimlessly down the forecasting aisle in the supermarket of...[read more]