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predictions

WSJ Gets it Wrong on 'Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven't Come True'

October 10, 2014 by Gail Tverberg
11

The Wall Street Journal and Peak Oil

The Wall Street Journal published “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True, which seems to say there are two possible outcomes: The peak oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or diminishing returns can and are being put off by technological progress. But a third outcome is actually happening.[read more]

Energy Quote of the Day: 'The Oil and Gas Industry is Terrible at Predicting Anything'

October 3, 2014 by Jared Anderson

Oil and Gas and the Future

It’s been said that one certainty regarding oil price forecasts is they will always be wrong. While there are certainly exceptions, the oil and gas industry’s history is littered with business cycle shifts that caught even the most seasoned analysts and executives flatfooted.[read more]

Research Suggests Climate Models Underestimate Climate Sensitivity

August 15, 2014 by Tom Schueneman
1

Climate Models and Risk

Climate models are mathematical representation of an enormously complex system. They are intended to project trends, not predict events. They are an imperfect but indispensable tool to gain an understanding of what we can likely expect in the future.[read more]

Five Clean Energy Trends to Watch

April 3, 2014 by Jared Anderson

Clean Energy Trends

As energy-focused investors search for opportunities brimming with potential, the growth in renewables – from a small base – along with other cleantech solutions cannot be ignored. The Clean Energy Trends 2014 report details opportunities and challenges clean energy companies currently face.[read more]

EIA Increases Short-Term Coal Retirement Prediction by 50%

February 20, 2014 by Katherine Tweed
11

Short-Term Coal Retirement

Coal retirements are happening, and fast, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2014 Annual Energy Outlook reference case. EIA’s latest prediction that about 60 gigawatts of coal will retire by 2016 is up from about 40 gigawatts that it predicted just last year.[read more]

The Solar Energy Industry at a Crossroads: Predictions of 2013 Reviewed

January 31, 2014 by Rosana Francescato

Solar Industry Predictions

It is in now way easy to accurately predict the future, and that’s especially true of the highly volatile solar energy industry -- and industry that is often compared to an infant. And like an infant, the industry is still experiencing some growing pains.[read more]

How Smart Grid Technology Can Build a Better Utility Industry Future: Part 2

January 21, 2014 by Casey Novak

Smart Grid Tech and Utilities

A few days ago we explored the first five utility industry predictions for 2014, according to analysts at IDC. Each of IDC's 10 total predictions bears some significant relevance to smart grids and smart grid technology. Here are the smart grid implications of IDC's final five predictions.[read more]

Grading My 2013 Energy Predictions

January 17, 2014 by Robert Rapier

In January 2013, I made the five predictions about energy and the energy industry for the coming year. In this post, I present a report card for how I did on those predictions from last year. Overall, I didn't actually do all that bad.[read more]

Looking Back At 2013's Cleantech Investing Predictions

January 10, 2014 by Rob Day

It's that time again! Time to look back on my predictions from a year ago and see how the year turned out. The cleantech revolution may not be televised, but it's already powering your T.V. Here were the predictions and how they turned out.[read more]

Why Have IEA Renewables Growth Projections Been So Much Lower Than the Out-Turn?

October 14, 2013 by Adam Whitmore
3

IEA and Projections

The IEA has greatly underestimated the growth of renewables for some years now. This illustrates how important it is to allow for unexpected outcomes if policy design is to be robust, as even well informed projections can be very different from the subsequent out-turn.[read more]

What Was the IPCC AR4 Most Certain About?

September 25, 2013 by Roger Pielke, Jr.

Climate Change and Certainty

With attention focused on the release of the Working Group I report of Fifth Assessment of the IPCC, I thought that it would be worthwhile to present the findings of Working Group I from the Fourth Assessment (AR4) which were expressed with the greatest certainty.[read more]

Some fearless predictions for nuclear energy in 2011

December 19, 2010 by a b
2

The worst that could happen is that I’ll be wrong Every year analysts in various industries like to dust off their crystal ball and see what the future holds for their line of business. The nuclear energy industry is no different. Here are some ideas about what might happen in 2011. Some are dark and some are exhilarating. The enthusiasm...[read more]

The Future

November 8, 2010 by Michael Tobis

Here's my decennial prediction of the future, per Keith's inquiry. By 2030:1) New sources of fossil fuels and the defeat of carbon pricing in any form will put the economy more or less "back on track" to its overheated consume-at-any-price every-Christmas-bigger-than-the-last frenzy. Canada and Texas will thrive. Possibly this will...[read more]

How good are our predictions of the next 30 years ?

May 11, 2010 by Big Gav

The Long Now Blog has a great graphic showing how poor predictions in the 1970's of future energy use in the US were - How good are our predictions of the next 30 years ?. The modellers obviously underestimated how successful energy efficiency programs would be - and perhaps also how much US manufacturing would disappear offshore. [read more]

The Real Gulf Behind the Oil Disaster

May 10, 2010 by Osha Davidson

If you had been tracking the course of the BP-Deepwater Horizon oil gusher, or listening to media coverage about areas that were potentially threatened by the massive amounts of oil floating in the Gulf, you may have thought that experts knew where it’s likely to hit land. In a general sense, at least. That was never true. But it seemed...[read more]