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predictions

Patents Forecast Technological Change

April 24, 2015 by Energy @ MIT
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Predicting Technological Innovation

How fast is online learning evolving? Are wind turbines a promising investment? And how long before a cheap hoverboard makes it to market? Attempting to answer such questions requires knowing something about the rate at which a technology is improving.[read more]

The 'Global Calculator': A New Interactive Climate Change Scenario Tool

April 4, 2015 by Roman Kilisek

Climate Change Prediction Tools

A new tool named the “Global Calculator” is designed to interactively raise awareness of climate change impacts. A lack of action on behalf of the international community to implement global mitigation and adaptation strategies is expected to increase the severity of these climate change impacts.[read more]

Global Wind and Solar Installations Exceeded 'Expert' Growth Predictions

April 2, 2015 by Roman Kilisek
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Renewables Beating Predictions

Global growth in renewable energy sources continues to break records while the installed capacity of these systems steadily increases. Wind and solar power still account for a small share of the overall power generation mix, but the growth of these energy sources continues to impress analysts and surpass expectations.[read more]

China Coal Use Can Peak this Decade: What Did the IEA Miss?

December 22, 2014 by Lauri Myllyvirta

China Peak Coal and the IEA

The IEA published its Medium-Term Coal Market Report, with a lot of attention devoted to proffering the notion that China’s coal consumption will continue to grow until the end of this decade. A thorough analysis of Chinese energy trends suggests that coal peak is much more achievable than the IEA made it seem.[read more]

The Final Five Smart Grid Predictions: A Progress Report

December 17, 2014 by Christine Hertzog
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I made ten predictions all the way back in January 2014 about Smart Grid and Smart City trends and changes that will occur between 2014 and 2020. Here is an update on the final five predictions. You can review the full predictions and judge for yourself the quality of my crystal ball.[read more]

Reading the Tea Leaves in the Oil Markets [VIDEO]

December 15, 2014 by Robert Rapier
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Oil Market Predictions

This week I would like to post a new interview that I did with Jason Burack of Wall Street for Main Street. I have been asked many times in recent weeks for comments on what’s happening in the oil and gas markets. Here I lay things out as I see them in a wide-ranging 40-minute interview.[read more]

Energy Quote of the Day: 'Oil Prices are Expected to Remain High Enough in 2015'

December 12, 2014 by Jared Anderson

Oil Prices in 2015

The US Energy Information Administration recently slashed its 2015 oil price forecasts, but the statistical arm of the DOE still expects total oil output to increase to volumes not seen since 1972. It will take some time before current lower oil price levels manifest in lower US oil production volumes.[read more]

Great Progress on Smart Grid and Smart City Predictions for 2020

December 9, 2014 by Christine Hertzog

How much can actually change in a year? When it comes to Smart Grid and Smart City topics, the answer is quite simply that quite a lot can change. Here’s a progress report on my ten predictions about Smart Grid and Smart Cities activity by 2020.[read more]

Grains of Rice, Japanese Swords, and Solar Panels

December 1, 2014 by Adam Whitmore
29

Solar and Growth

Greenpeace did much better than many at projecting the growth of renewable energy sources in the 2000s. Their projections were very close to outturn for wind – the 1999 projections were a little below outturn, the 2002 projections a little above. However even Greenpeace underestimated the growth of solar.[read more]

The US-China Climate Deal: Don't Get Carried Away

November 24, 2014 by Chris Hope

The US and China announced what has been hailed as a historic deal on greenhouse gas emissions, with China agreeing to cap emissions around 2030 and the US committing to 26 – 28% reductions by 2025. What does this actually mean for the climate and for the damage that climate change might bring?[read more]

WSJ Gets it Wrong on 'Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven't Come True'

October 10, 2014 by Gail Tverberg
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The Wall Street Journal and Peak Oil

The Wall Street Journal published “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True, which seems to say there are two possible outcomes: The peak oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or diminishing returns can and are being put off by technological progress. But a third outcome is actually happening.[read more]

Energy Quote of the Day: 'The Oil and Gas Industry is Terrible at Predicting Anything'

October 3, 2014 by Jared Anderson

Oil and Gas and the Future

It’s been said that one certainty regarding oil price forecasts is they will always be wrong. While there are certainly exceptions, the oil and gas industry’s history is littered with business cycle shifts that caught even the most seasoned analysts and executives flatfooted.[read more]

Research Suggests Climate Models Underestimate Climate Sensitivity

August 15, 2014 by Tom Schueneman
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Climate Models and Risk

Climate models are mathematical representation of an enormously complex system. They are intended to project trends, not predict events. They are an imperfect but indispensable tool to gain an understanding of what we can likely expect in the future.[read more]

Five Clean Energy Trends to Watch

April 3, 2014 by Jared Anderson

Clean Energy Trends

As energy-focused investors search for opportunities brimming with potential, the growth in renewables – from a small base – along with other cleantech solutions cannot be ignored. The Clean Energy Trends 2014 report details opportunities and challenges clean energy companies currently face.[read more]

EIA Increases Short-Term Coal Retirement Prediction by 50%

February 20, 2014 by Katherine Tweed
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Short-Term Coal Retirement

Coal retirements are happening, and fast, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2014 Annual Energy Outlook reference case. EIA’s latest prediction that about 60 gigawatts of coal will retire by 2016 is up from about 40 gigawatts that it predicted just last year.[read more]