The headline from the Associated Press "Biggest Jump Ever in Global Warming Gases" tells part of the story. The preliminary estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions for 2010 from Oak Ridge National Laboratory reveal what appears to be a quick rebound from the global financial crisis. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased 6% from 2009 to 2010, driven in large by by China. This was the largest one-year (and total) increase in carbion dioxide emissions in the Oak Ridge data.
If you drill into the numbers, which can be found here, you discover how economic turmoil, international development and, yes, maybe even a push to low-carbon economy in some countries, is changing the world. In the 2010 data (top right), China is by far the top emitter, ahead of the U.S., and India is now in the third spot. Of course, this ranking does not take population into account; the per capita emissions in China, and especially India, are far lower that that in the U.S. and Canada.
What is even more striking is the change over the past three years. I've plotted the percent change from 2008 to 2010 for the same "top twenty" countries (bottom right). Here you can see that fossil carbon emissions increased rapidly in the major developing economies - China, India, Indonesia, etc, emissions from all of the major emitting countries in the developed world decreased. The industrialized nations that ratified the Kyoto might actually come close to reaching the emissions reductions targets set back in 1997 (we need to wait a couple more years to know for sure). Emissions growth in the developing world, however, is outpacing predictions, so total global emissions continue to increase. This will undoubtedly trigger further arguments about the value of the developed world actions without commitments from the developing world, and counterarguments about equity and sustainable development.
A final note: There are two very important things to keep in mind when looking at these charts. First, this is only carbon dioxide. Despite the use of the plural gases in AP headline, the data is just carbon dioxide. The country-by-country breakdown might be a bit different if the metric were carbon dioxide "equivalent", the catch-all term in which the radiative effect of methane, nitrous oxide and the other greenhouse gases is convered into units of carbon dioxide. Second, this is only from fossil fuel and cement. Again, the numbers would be different if greenhouse gas emissions from land use change were included. For one, Indonesia, might vault up the list, at least to sixth spot, probably even higher.
Stunning New Carbon Emissions Data
Other Posts by Simon Donner
Dispatch from Kiribati: Can you "see" sea level rise? - May 2, 2012
Why I am opposed to Northern Gateway - February 6, 2012
Who to trust about climate change - February 2, 2012
Changing the tone of the Climate Change discourse - January 26, 2012
Adapting to Mild Winters - January 13, 2012
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Anonymous said:
The US is tracking in the right direction so why sign the Kyoto Agreement? We have lost our textile, steel and auto industry which is killing the economy. As poverty increses the air gets cleaner, who knew? We need to take advantage of the positive aspects of Global Warming, ie, increased growing seasons, lower energy/heating costs, etc. Global Cooling is the real killer, no food, no heat and we all die.
willem Post said:
Simon,
A great article. The new increases you write of are manmade. The subsequent increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is due to the new CO2 being added, plus due to the world's decreasing ability to sequester CO2. Cosmic radiation changes also have impacts on global warming.
The Little Ice Age, started about 1450, may have been caused by decreased cosmic radiation prior to it, and the ending of the LIA, about 1850, may have been caused by increased cosmic radiation prior to it.
The ensuing GW caused increased release of methane into the atmosphere further warming the earth.
A worldwide deforestation has taking place from about 1750 to the present, reducing the earth's ability to absorb natural and manmade CO2.
About 1850, CO2 began to increase in the atmosphere, further increasing GW and further increasing methane release.
These trends are unstoppable.
Even if manmade CO2 went to zero by 2050, the increasingly warmer earth would release more methane for decades after 2050
Conclusion: GW is baked in for at least the rest of this century.
Renewables vendors and other proponents will not agree with the above, because their business plans are based on the dubious claim their products will save the world from GW. They will use any type of PR to sustain their businesses and the continued doling out of government subsidies.
It would be much wiser and more economical to shift subsidies away from expensive renewables that produce just a little of variable, intermittent energy, towards more effective energy efficiency.
Those renewables would not be needed, if we use those funds for increased energy efficiency, because it has not scratched the surface, and is by far the best approach, because it provides the quickest and biggest “bang for the buck”, AND it is invisible, AND it does not make noise, AND it does not destroy pristine ridge lines/upset mountain water runoffs, AND it would more effectively reduce CO2, AND it would create 3 times the jobs per invested dollar all over Vermont than renewables, AND it would not coddle renewables oligarchs at the expense of rate payers, AND it would do all this without public resistance and controversy.
Tech said:
China really needs to do something about their pollution problem. They're at the top of every list.
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