Sign up | Login with →

Comments by Gail Tverberg Subscribe

On Oil Limits and Climate Change: How They Fit Together

I am not sure what you are quoting. It is certainly not something I wrote.

April 15, 2014    View Comment    

On Oil Limits and Climate Change: How They Fit Together

We badly need globalization, to keep our current "model" going. But it seems to be going by the side now. Fighting over resources, when they are in short supply, has been going on as long as there have been humans, I expect. We had a temporary lull when fossil fuels were more abundant.

April 14, 2014    View Comment    

On The Absurdity of US Natural Gas Exports

You have to make the hydgoen somehow, using energy . Storing it then gets to be a problem. It iven tends to leak out of tanks, once stored. I am not convinced it is a very practical solution.

April 4, 2014    View Comment    

On The Absurdity of US Natural Gas Exports

Willem, 

I think you are right. Most of the export capacity will never be built. It is easier to get approvals on the general concept from the EIA than the actual funding for these projects, with a number of other projects likely producing lower cost gas. Obviously ships are needed as well, or the natural gas won't go far.

 

April 4, 2014    View Comment    

On Oil Limits and the Economy: One Story, Not Two

Thanks for the suggestion with respect to "Surviving Progress." I am not a movie watcher, so missed it.

I think that where the film and I differ relates to how much we can do about the situation. The film (as I understand it from the reviews) argues that we can save ourseleves by scaling back.

If our current situation really is the result of a physics related problem, then our ability to voluntarily scale back is very limited. Physics determines that economies with the greatest energy use are the most successful. Also, even if we scale back, there is the issue of finite resources still depleting, even if more slowly. 

March 23, 2014    View Comment    

On Reaching Debt Limits: With or Without China's Problems, We Have a Problem

Demand is affordability, in my book. Demand goes way down, if you get laid off your job. We need cheap oil (and cheap other fuels) to have today's jobs. It is lack of jobs that leads to lack of demand.

March 13, 2014    View Comment    

On Reasons for our Energy Predicament: An Overview

It may seem peculiar. I suggest reading my article fromthe journal Energy. A version is available free on my website Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. It is more general than simply about the recession.

James Hamilotn has an article that is very specific to the recession. It is called Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-2008.

 

March 7, 2014    View Comment    

On Reasons for our Energy Predicament: An Overview

What I look at is our financial problems that we have today, that are largely papered over by Quantitative Easing. These financial problems were largely caused by high oil prices. In fact, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 was caused by high oil prices. 

We can't keep QE going much longer. We don't have time (or money) to change to other fuels. Wind and solar have so much costs involved, that they tend to put us on the down escalator, rather than the up escalator. We don't have solutions in other fuels.

 

March 6, 2014    View Comment    

On Reasons for our Energy Predicament: An Overview

The issue with financial and political limits is they hit different countries at different times.

Oil exporters with declines are hit especially hard. Look at Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela. They are already experiencing the kind of effects that a person would expect of countries with limits.

The Former Soviet Union is an example of an exporter that broke up, when oil prices dropped too low. Once prices rose again, and the world economy was healthier, they were able to raise production again.

Countries that are big users (and importers) of oil are especially hit as well. Greece is an example. So is Spain.

Quantitative Easing has been able to hide a lot of problems. The question is how long it can continue.

 

 

March 6, 2014    View Comment    

On Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending

I expect that the impact of the lack of oil will be job layoffs. So whether or not a new plug-in car will make sense depends on whether a person can pay for that car without a job. Oil prices may spike temporarily, but because we cannot afford high priced oil, will continue to be low. It is too low oil prices that are our problem right now.

February 27, 2014    View Comment    

On Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending

The only "catch" is that there is a lot of long term debt out there in the world. This debt is much easier to pay back, if there is real growth. The financial system cannot withstand a flate economy. China can't expect to increase its sales to the US and Europe, if many of the homes have declining real income. It is the debt that creates a big mess when growth slows--that and the many government programs that can't really be funded with tax dollars, as the tax base for paying for them does not keep up with the benefits.

February 27, 2014    View Comment    

On Reaching Limits to Growth: What Should our Response Be?

The issue is that basically, we are reaching "Limits to Growth". This is not the issue that most "Peak Oilers" wrote about. They thought that somehow, we could have a slow downturn, and substitute other types of fuels for oil. Oil prices would keep rising, so we would always have some oil, and subsitutites would be possible.

Instead, our problem is a financial problem that is likely biting within the next couple of years. It has to do with current oil price being too high for governments and the financial system, at the same time that oil price is too low for oil extraction companies. There is no place that the oil price can move to fix the situation.

The high oil prices are leading to government funding problems now. This is why governments keep needing to do Quantitative Easing, to try to stimulate economies and keep interest rates down. It can't continue. If interest rates rise, everything will collapse. Or if oil prices rise, everythihg will collapse.

The peak oil story wasn't really the correct story.

February 21, 2014    View Comment