Yes, as shown in the graph, Fukushima had a very large negative impact on the near-term prospects (up to 2020) of Chinese nuclear. However, such black swan events generally happen only once every few decades, implying that nuclear starts may well accelerate in the next decade similarly to the pre-Fukushima years. As you said, regulation will play a major role, but I think the Chinese will be sufficiently desparate for reliable, emissions-free power to provide a good nuclear growth environment.
About the increasing generation gap between wind and nuclear, this gap should close over the next 2-3 years as the large number of nuclear plants started in the 2008-2011 period are completed. Let's wait and see...
China is going for a lot of rooftop solar this year, implying that they will trade low capacity factors and high installation costs for easier integration. Unfortutely, solar irradiation in the south-eastern population centres of China is pretty lousy, implying that a similar capacity expansion to wind (albeit substantially more expensive) will generate much less electricity.
About hydro, it is important to keep in mind that, on a per-capita basis, China is a very dry country. Hydro has been expanding impressively over the past couple of years and also into 2014, but may well fall behind total energy growth in the future. The very large energy demand pressures and enormous scale of Chinese hydro facilities will also make it difficult to operate as wind/solar backup.
Thanks for the interesting link to Chinese wind power locations. However, the map gives a bit of a distorted impression due to the very large number of planned offshore wind farms included. I have my doubts about how much of this will be realized simply because offshore wind is so expensive and has actually been getting more expensive over time. More detailed information on the challenges faced by Chinese wind expansion can be found in Michael Davidson's excellent East Winds column on TEC.
About the recurring argument that wind/solar costs will continue declining, I'm still of the opinion that integration challenges (profile, balancing and grid-related costs) and other factors will overwhelm even large cost declines at moderate penetrations (~10-50% of electricity or 4-20% of total energy depending on location). We will probably not agree on this, but, similarly our different views on climate change, we will just have to accept each other's different perspectives.