Thank you for your comment, Mr. Miller.
Shale scepticism is not exclusively based on Hubbert's peaking oil theory. There are many other aspects.
1. I agree, that fracking is and will be an important source in the U.S. production. However the quality of both technical and financial information about the real situation in unconventional gas industry is very poor. There are some optimistic EIA charts and many press releases by fracking corporations. Is it enough to make far-reaching conclusions? I doubt it.
2. EU problems with unconventional gas by today are as follows:
a) densely populated areas
b) lack of private land and drinking water
c) environmental issues (groundwater contamination, earthquakes
d) problems with commercial feasibility - some thoughts on the matter in Fracking FAQ.
3. >> the world still has 100 +/- years of recoverable oil and gas.
Agreed, it is most probable that World Bank stats on recoverable fossils are correct.. My idea is not that they are technologically un-recoverable.
All I want to say is that in the mid-term we will not see export of US fracking technology to the European Union. Even exorbitant prices on the EU nat gas market won't change the situation. Fracking in Poland and Ukraine is unrealistic, unless technology radically changes.