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On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 3: The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits

Hops,

If we study prices, one finds 1 penny bought in 1900 what now takes about 50 pennies.

Inflation at 3%, or 1.03 to the power 100 gives only 19.2, so other factors are involved. One of them is debt on which interest is paid.

Debt has an inflationary effect; it makes economic product and services SEEM larger eventhough their physical size is unchanged.

 

 

February 15, 2015    View Comment    

On Comparing the Costs of Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

Bruce,

Can you support that statement with some back up?

February 15, 2015    View Comment    

On Comparing the Costs of Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

Deleted duplicate

February 14, 2015    View Comment    

On Comparing the Costs of Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

Schalk,

The numbers in the article are grossly underestimated, as you show, and would be even more so, if the below factors were accounted for.

The Northeast has an overall capacity factor of 0.25. Ridgeline wind costs about $2,600,000/MW + grid connection costs.

- The 63 MW ridgeline wind system in Vermont took $20 million to properly connect to the grid, plus about 1.5 years of lesser production to minimize grid disturbances.

- The 60 MW Seneca project was cancelled because $86 million of grid upgrades were required.

Another cost is adjusting the generator population to have the mix of capacities to adequately balance the variable energy. That new mix of capacities likely would not be as optimum as without variable RE.

Another cost is the lesser efficiency of the generators that are doing and/or are impacted by the balancing.

Another cost is having nearly ALL conventional generators available, in good working order, staffed and fueled, when there is no or minimal wind and sun, which can occur during any time of the year.

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/310631/more-realistic-cost-wind-energy

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/332911/high-renewable-energy-costs-damage-vermonts-economy

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/338781/high-renewable-energy-costs-damage-germanys-economy

February 14, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Spec,

In New England, 5 kW roof top solar systems are about $4000/kW installed. Field mounted about $5700/kW

February 9, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Bas,

"The System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) measures the average interruption time per electricity customer, and it is the foremost metric used internationally for assessing electric grid reliability. "

I am talking about fluctuations of frequency and voltage due to variable solar and wind energy.

You are talking about INTERRUPTIONS,  something entirely different, as any Delft engineer should know.

 

URL references?

February 9, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Jim,

Sources of the INEXPENSIVE energy?

February 9, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Gail,

Solar energy is not only intermittent, but also variable.

I have the minute by minute output plots of my neighbor's solar system and they vary quite a lot, especially during a partially clouded day, common in New England.

Solar provides expensive, variable, intermittent, i.e., junk energy, but not RELIABLE energy, and certainly not dispatachble energy.

In NE, solar CF about 0.14, cost about 20 c/kWh (with subsidies), average monthly DAY-TIME PEAK grid prices about 7 c/kWh, rarely exceeding 8 c/kWh. 

Many solar installations within a distribution grid (Germany, California) will upset the local grid requiring battery systems to be installed as dampers to minimize disturbances.

This has nothing to do with storage of energy for later use.

Viable storage, other than hydro, has not yet been invented, and would take many billions and many years to deploy AFTER it has been invented.

Right now, it is snowing in NE and their is no wind. Where would the energy come from to power my computer to write this comment?

Conclusion: ALL other generators, staffed, fueled, kept in good working order, are required to provide energy when wind and solar are absent, PLUS to provide balancing when wind and solar ARE present!!!

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/310631/more-realistic-cost-wind-energy

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/332911/high-renewable-energy-costs-damage-vermonts-economy

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/338781/high-renewable-energy-costs-damage-germanys-economy

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/2146376/renewable-energy-less-effective-energy-efficiency

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/2162036/comparison-grid-connected-and-grid-houses

February 9, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Gail,

In 1800, world population was 1 billion, in 2014, it was 7.3 billion, thanks to plentiful, low cost energy from fossil fuels.

In 2014, each person uses 4 times the energy of a person in 1800, AND uses that energy so efficiently that the Gross Wold Product is over 400 times what is was in 1800.

February 8, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Spec,

Look not at panel cost, but at PV system cost.

February 8, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Bas,

Germany had the most reliable grid in the world, BEFORE energiewende. Because of its industry, it cannot have a less reliable grid.

There have been times RE did cause excessive instabilities, but many companies have insulated themselves by generating their own energy.

February 8, 2015    View Comment    

On A New Theory of Energy and the Economy, Part 2: Showing the Long-Term GDP-Energy Tie

Keith, 

You are correct, and German CO2 will be increasing as more coal is used. See my above comment.

February 8, 2015    View Comment