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On Economics of Batteries for Stabilizing and Storage on Distribution Grids

A guest,

"the customer-sited, multi-use batteries are also able to deliver the most services and value to the grid and customers."

The article clearly shows homeowner-sited battery systems performing these services is at a very high cost/kWh, therefore not economically viable, unless the cost of the systems is reduced by at least 50 to 75 percent by means of subsidies.

February 7, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

Bob,

The Chevy-Volt has a cooling and heating system for the battery to make sure deterioration will be minimal.

That requires energy, i.e., more kWh/mile.

January 22, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

Bob,

I expect electrical energy prices to increase during the next 8 years. In NE, they are about 20 c/kWh, including taxes, fees and surcharges.

Degradation of range is noticeable (more energy consumption per mile) during hot days, say 90F, and cold days, say 20F, according to my primary care doctor, who has a Nissan Leaf, and does not drive it during most of the colder days in winter.

I agree, O&M of an EV is much less than of an IC, but I was not comparing EV versus IC; that is another issue.

January 22, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

Bob,

Thank you for these numbers. Here is the revised section.

TESLA: Below is a quick way and a more accurate way to determine the cost per mile of owning and operating a TESLA car for 8 years. Assumptions: TESLA, all-electric car; 85 kWh battery; battery warrantee 8 years, unlimited miles; $80,000, new, $15,000 at 8 years; driven 100,000 miles in 8 years; 0.30 kWh/mile at customer meter; 10% free, on-road charging, 90% at home charging at 0.20 $/kWh.

Annual charging cost is (100,000/8) x 0.3 x (0.1 x 0 + 0.9 x 0.20) = $675, or 5.4 c/mile.

Car cost/mile is (80,000 – 15,000)/100,000 = 65 c/mile.

Quick way cost is 70.4 c/mile, with ignored costs about 90 c/mile.

Annual payment for amortizing $80,000 at 3%, 8y, is $11,396, or (8 x 11396 - 15000)/100000 = 76.2 c/mile.   

Annual charging cost is (100,000/8) x 0.3 x (0.1 x 0 + 0.9 x 0.2) = $675, or 5.4 c/mile.

More accurate way cost is 81.6 c/mile, with ignored costs about 90 c/mile.

Nissan Leaf: Below is a quick way and a more accurate way to determine the cost per mile of owning and operating a Nissan Leaf car for 8 years. Assumptions: 24 kWh battery; battery warrantee 8 years, 100,000 miles; $30,000, new, $5,500 at 8 years; driven 100,000 miles in 8 years; 0.30 kWh/mile at customer meter; no on-road charging, 100% at home charging at 0.20 $/kWh.

Annual charging cost is (100000/8) x 0.3 x 0.20 = $750, or 6 c/mile.

Car cost/mile  = (30000 – 5500)/100000 = 24.5 c/mile.

Quick way cost is 30.5 c/mile, with ignored costs about 40 c/mile.

Annual payment for amortizing $30,000 at 3%, 8y, is $4,274, or (8 x 4274 - 5500)/100000 = 28.7 c/mile.  

Annual charging cost is (100,000/8) x 0.3 x 0.2 = $750, or 6 c/mile.

More accurate way cost = 34.7 c/mile, with ignored costs about 40 c/mile.

Ignored costs: The cost of financing and amortizing (for the “quick way”), PLUS any costs for O&M of car and at-home charger, PLUS taxes, license, registration; PLUS any capacity degradation due to cycling, are ignored. Capacity degradation means it takes more energy to charge and discharge the battery, a shorter range for a given battery discharge, less livelier throttle response during acceleration and uphill driving.

NOTE: Assuming a new owner buys the 8-y-old car for $15,000, he likely would install a new battery for about 85 kWh x $125/kWh = $10,625, plus labor and materials, and disposal of the old battery. The price of a new TESLA likely would be about $80,000 eight years from now, because increases in car costs likely would be offset by decreases in battery costs.

January 21, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

It is worse!!

The capital cost of adding battery systems for stability, and for peaking, filling-in and balancing, to make distribution grids more independent of high voltage grids, would be about 25% of the cost of the PV solar systems, based on current battery system prices/MWh. Batteries are about 50% of the installed battery system capital cost, i.e., battery system cost would decrease a lesser percent than battery cost.

Utility-scale, battery systems, often in temperature-controlled buildings/enclosures, have at least 20% round-trip, energy losses. That means any large percentages of solar and wind energy on the grid, implying fewer fossil plants, would require utility-scale storage to cover intermittency and variability, and the part of their energy that is stored would be reduced by at least 20%.

Fossil, nuclear, hydro, bio, etc., have no such losses.

This article explains all in detail.

http://www.theenergycollective.com/willem-post/2308156/economics-batteries-stabilizing-and-storage-distribution-grids

January 21, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

Hops,

"Saudi Arabia is looking a build out of solar in part to burn less oil for power generation and desalination". 

Soon, Saudi Arabia will be contracting for about 8 to 10 nuclear reactors, at about 1000 MW each, at a cost of about $5500/kW, turnkey.

January 21, 2016    View Comment    

On With Battery Production Exploding, Lithium Is Becoming the ‘New Gasoline’

Joris,

Folks also talk about electric vehicles being so low in cost per mile. Here is an example:

OWNING AND OPERATING A TESLA VEHICLE

Below is a quick way to determine the cost per mile of owning and operating a TESLA car for 8 years. Assumptions: TESLA, all-electric car; 85 kWh battery; battery warrantee 8 years, unlimited miles; $80,000, new, $15,000 at 8 years; driven 100,000 miles in 8 years; 0.30 kWh/mile; 20% free, on-road charging, 80% at home charging at 0.20 $/kWh.

Annual charging cost = (100,000/8) x 0.3 x (0.2 x 0 + 0.8 x 0.2) = $600, or 4.8 c/mile.

Car cost/mile = (80,000 – 15,000)/100,000 = 65 c/mile.

Energy cost per mile = 69.8 c/mile, with ignored costs at least 95 to 100 c/mile.

Ignored costs: The cost of financing and amortizing, PLUS any costs for O&M of car and at-home charger, PLUS any capacity degradation due to cycling, are ignored. Capacity degradation means it takes more energy to charge and discharge the battery, a shorter range for a given battery discharge, less livelier throttle response during acceleration and uphill driving.

NOTE: Assuming a new owner buys the 8-y-old car for $15,000, he likely would install a new battery for about 85 kWh x $125/kWh = $10,625, plus labor and materials, and disposal of the old battery.

http://www.theenergycollective.com/willem-post/2308156/economics-batteries-stabilizing-and-storage-distribution-grids

 

January 21, 2016    View Comment    

On Economics of Batteries for Stabilizing and Storage on Distribution Grids

Clayton,

Thank you for the nice graph.

Please provide the URL with the data.

 

There are several large (2.2 MW or less), 2-axis tracking systems, and about a dozen 2.2 MW or less fixed axis systems in Vermont, all field-mounted.

I have the monthly production data of all of them, as they are published by the Department of Public Service.

The largest difference in ANNUAL production is about 25%. This surprised me, because a Vermont vendor selling these units had been bragging about 45%.

Good thing DPS published the production data of HIS tracking units.

January 20, 2016    View Comment    

On Nuclear News Roundup for 01/17/16

Dan,

Here is a URL about the Russian nuclear industry, which is by far the largest in the world with about $300 billion in orders, including reactors being built and not yet started.

In April 2015, Rosatom said it had contracts for 19 nuclear plants in nine countries, including those under construction (5).

In September, 2015, it said the total value of all export orders was $300 billion, excluding Egypt.

In December 2015, it said it had orders for 34 nuclear power reactors in 13 countries, at about $5 billion each to construct, and it was negotiating for more. 

The list is periodiccally updated.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/Russia--Nuclear-Power/

 

January 20, 2016    View Comment    

On Economics of Batteries for Stabilizing and Storage on Distribution Grids

Bob,

Iowa feeds it's wind energy, as electro-magnetic waves, into the grid. If in-state consumption is insufficient, the Iowa mix is transmitted, because of a voltage difference, eastwards to merge with the Illinois mix, etc.

All this happens at near the speed of light; the electrons move at inches per second, essentially they vibrate in place at 60Hz.

The Illinois mix is balanced, as needed.

I am not saying Illinois depends on this energy. However, it may depend more and more on it in the future.

 

January 14, 2016    View Comment    

On Economics of Batteries for Stabilizing and Storage on Distribution Grids

Bob,

Not so.

Iowa exports almost all of its wind energy, on dedicated lines, to much larger Midwest markets, which provide for peaking, filling-in and balancing.

Owners of the Iowa wind turbines get paid.

There is no reason, the entire Great Plains could not get in on this set-up, as I described.

But even better is the CSP with storage set-up, as it does not need to rely on fossil for peaking, filling-in and balancing.

January 14, 2016    View Comment    

On Economics of Batteries for Stabilizing and Storage on Distribution Grids

Math,

In New England, cloudiness is a major issue regarding solar, as it is in Germany.

The US GREAT PLAINS, from the Canadian border to the Mexican border, is becoming the Saudi Arabia of wind energy.

Similarly, the US southwest, with thousands of square miles of flat, uninhabited, desert-like, terrain, is becoming the Saudi Arabia of energy from CSP with storage.

Europe has no such advantages, unless the Sahara Desert is used for CSP. Please, reread my article for details.

 

January 14, 2016    View Comment