Idaho is not likely to be nuclear soon

In the third decade of this century Idaho Power may buy electricity from INL's "Next Generation" nuclear plant

Hat tip to Dave Bradish and his team at NEI Nuclear Notes

The Mountain Express out of Mountain Home, ID has a news note for June 2 that reports sometime in the third decade of this century Idaho Power will consider acquiring electricity from a planned "Next Generation" reactor to be built at the Idaho National Laboratory. This news is consistent with an energy plan the State of Idaho published last year.

It's still a stretch to consider, on a realistic basis, that anyone will build a 3rd generation commercial nuclear power plant in Idaho especially as a Merchant. Just for starters Idaho Power isn't big enough, financially speaking, to bet the company on a new nuclear power plant. This is one of those situations where size does matter.

Here's the pull quote from John Miller, Senior VP for power supply, at Idaho Power, as reported in the Mountan Express.

"In addition, Miller said Idaho Power was considering -- long range -- the use of nuclear power to add to its energy generating capacity. While the company has had contact with the developers of a proposed nuclear power plant in Elmore County (and even has given them some advice), Miller said that plant is in such a preliminary stage of its proposal that serious negotiations to purchase power from it have not begun.

The company is, however, looking a little more seriously at a proposal for a power-generating next-generation reactor that could be built on the Idaho National Laboratory reservation between Arco and Idaho Falls, the home of several experimental reactors, but that proposed plant would not be available, at the earliest, until early in the 2020s."

The news report accurately reports that Idaho Power has had some discussions with Alternative Energy Holdings Inc (AEHI), a Virginia firm, but that no commitments have been made. The original news report also accurately notes that when the Idaho National Laboratory builds a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), it will provide 300 MWe to the grid in Idaho. It could provide 600 MW, but the Idaho grid isn't set up at this time to handle that amount of power from a single source. The NGNP will also be used to demonstrate its capability to supply process heat for chemical plants and oil refineries and to make hydrogen.

Bottom line Idaho Power has not indicated it has any plans on its own behalf to build or sponsor the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant. It is willing to buy power from others, but that's it. Idaho Power was also reportedly interested in buying power from Warren Buffet's proposed plant in Payette, ID, to be built by MidAmerican, but that project was canceled due to financial issues. Idaho Power was not an investor in that project.

Having said that it is also worth noting that AEHI is a long shot with little chance of obtaining the funding needed to build a $3.5 billion, 1,600 MWe Areva EPR as a result of its agreement in principle with Constellation. AEHI has gone through two investment bankers neither of whom have any experience with energy projects much less nuclear power. The firm's stock is traded over-the-counter and currently sells for less than $1.00/share.

As far as NGNP is concerned, the Department of Energy has not committed to construction at this time, but has continued to fund R&D on fuel, materials, and other reactor basics. Lab R&R managers have said the funds are short of what is needed to start construction by about 2016.

While the NGNP will likely be a high temperature gas cooled reactor, possibly a pebble bed, there is no guarantee that design approach will prevail. Meanwhile, the South Africans are racing ahead with their pebble bed reactor and on on the verge of gaining a major infusion of cash from Mitsubishi. It is likely that by the time the Idaho lab actually starts construction of the NGNP, around 2016 or later, the South Africans will be well on their way to completing their demonstration pebble bed plant and will be taking orders for export of a 200 MW reactor. A Pebble Bed at 200 MW might be just the ticket for Idaho's electricity markets in 2020.