After my recent posting on resurgent food vs. fuel competition from expanding corn ethanol production, one of my contacts called to ask if I was familiar with an industrial process developed by Celanese Corporation for producing ethanol from a variety of feedstocks, including natural gas, coal, and potentially cellulosic biomass. My initial reaction to him was based on my knowledge that such processes have been around for decades, and that until the policy-inspired growth of the corn ethanol industry, much of the ethanol for industrial use was produced in that fashion. However, I was unaware of plans to deploy this technology on a truly massive scale, in the form of a pair of 400,000 ton-per-year coal-to-ethanol plants in China. I consider this a really interesting development on several levels.
The attraction of producing ethanol for industrial or fuel use from indigenous non-food raw materials in China seems obvious. It enhances the country's food and energy security by avoiding imports of both. As I delved into the technology involved, I realized it starts with gasification, a process that my former employer, Texaco Inc., licensed to numerous facilities in China, going back to the 1980s. So China has deep experience with gasification as an effective and reliable way to turn feedstocks as diverse as waste oil, petroleum coke, low-value coal, and even natural gas into syngas, or synthesis gas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen from which all sorts of useful organic chemicals can be produced. One of those is acetic acid (the acid in vinegar.) It turns out that Celanese's new ethanol process is an offshoot of the company's well-established "acetyl platform" for making acetic acid in plants like this one in Singapore.
It's noteworthy that the first ethanol plants Celanese is building are so large. 400,000 metric tons per year equates to 134 million gallons per year, larger than all but a couple of the corn-based ethanol plants in the US. I've also seen hints that these facilities could be expanded to 1 million tons/yr, which would put their output in the same league as the gasoline yield of the smallest oil refineries. That would be truly industrial scale fuel production that conventional or advanced biofuels can't yet match and may never do, because of their much more complex supply chain considerations. That also explains why Celanese could consider building a 40,000 ton ethanol plant in Texas based on natural gas. The supply chain isn't an issue when it's just an existing pipeline. In any case, large scale and low feedstock cost should result in ethanol output that's more than competitive with ethanol from biomass. US biofuel producers eyeing export markets ought to be concerned about the potential competition from Celanese, even if the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) guarantees them a market here.
My other instant reaction when I heard about this process focused on the potential environmental consequences of producing ethanol from coal. However, as I thought about it more carefully, it occurred to me that processing coal into ethanol using the extremely clean gasification process, which allows for sulfur and other contaminants to be easily and safely collected and disposed of, is probably a lot more benign than burning the same coal to produce electricity, particularly in power plants without state-of-the-art pollution equipment. Assessing the greenhouse gas impact of coal-to-ethanol requires a thorough lifecycle analysis that I have not yet found.
At the same time, it's clear that the environmental comparison to biofuels like corn-based ethanol isn't nearly as bad as suggested by an erroneous comment in a Business Week article on the subject last November, which stated that corn ethanol production "doesn't use a fossil fuel as a raw material." In fact, analysis by the Argonne National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy found that 78% of the energy in a typical gallon of corn ethanol comes from fossil fuels, including coal, diesel fuel, and natural gas. That's why the emissions from corn ethanol aren't much lower than from gasoline, after factoring in the natural-gas derived fertilizer used in growing the corn, the diesel fuel required for cultivation, harvesting and transportation, and the coal and natural gas used to generate electricity and process heat for the fermentation and distillations steps. Ethanol from coal might emit incrementally more greenhouse gases than food-crop based ethanol, but not orders of magnitude more. And I'd bet that a gas-to-ethanol plant would match or beat the emissions from a standard corn-based biorefinery, based on avoiding the need to separate the alcohol product from water. Distillation requires lots of energy.
It's getting harder to draw meaningful distinctions between conventional fuels and alternatives when we can make ethanol efficiently from fossil fuels and produce "drop-in" fuels--synthetic gasoline, diesel or jet fuel--from biomass like sugar cane or algae. I haven't seen how the detailed economics and energy balance of the Celanese ethanol process compare to traditional and advanced processes for producing ethanol from biomass, but I think we're going to be hearing a lot more about this option in the future. I was surprised to see that it even garnered a mention in the White House press release for the President's visit to China earlier this year.
Industrial Scale Ethanol
Authored by:
Geoffrey Styles
Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC, an energy and environmental strategy consulting firm. Since 2002 he has served as a consultant and advisor, helping organizations and executives address systems-level challenges. His industry experience includes 22 years at Texaco Inc., culminating in a senior position on Texaco's leadership team for strategy development, ...
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Geoffrey Styles says:
Ed,
I'm afraid I only have time for a brief response. First, I think you're inappropriately lumping all drop-in fuels together, when options like diesel from sugar cane offer the potential of significantly reduced lifecycle emissions based on low fossil inputs and high EROEI for cane, provided it's not incurring a big carbon debt by displacing rainforest.
With regard to the efficacy of "bridge fuels", the problem is that when we specify the end point as something like zero emissions by 20xx, we can't specify an exact path to get there, because no current technology can deliver on that without dramatic improvements (directly or in enabling technology) in the meantime. This is too much like the well-known strategic planning step called "insert miracle here." I don't know if gas is a viable path to a zero emission future (via CCS), but it's certainly a path to a lower-emission, higher energy-security future, and both of those outcomes sound desirable to me, and worth some investment. Likewise for drop-in fuels, which have major logistical and emissions advantages over corn ethanol and FAME biodiesel, if the technology proves out.
A guest says:
Geoff,
The natural gas industry is heavily regulated. Its capital investments are typically depreciated over 40 years. Zero emissions by 2050, for example, would probably leave much of the investment which would be required for NG to be a "bridge" fuel stranded in the market, unless 100% CCS became technically and economically practical.
The investments in E&P, T&D plus "drop-in" conversion would be massive. They would likely not be made if there were a reasonable prospect that they would not be recoverable.
I agree that we could not specify an exact path. However, there are some investments which would obviously not be on that path; and, others which would only return to the path following the insertion of a miracle.
I believe that zero by whenever would involve the investment of several tens of trillions of dollars. I am offended by the idea that those investments should be made on society's behalf until society finds something better to replace them, then relegated to economic dead loss and the hell with the investors.
I believe we are currently chomping at the bit to begin vast programs with half-vast ideas. I don't think that story has a happy ending.
A guest says:
Geoff,
I understand the attractiveness of "drop-in" fuels from an energy security perspective. However, they would do nothing, or worse, from a climate change perspective.
I am concerned that we become enamored of specific "trees" and lose focus on the "forest". We could invest a lot of capital in the production of "drop-in" fuels on the way to a decision to ban the use of both the original fuels and their "drop-in" replacements.
I have the same concern about the "natural gas as a "bridge" fuel advocates (bridge fools). The E&P and T&D investments required to facilitate the "bridge" could be obsoleted by climate change legislation and/or regulation before they were fully recovered.
Defining the unique, ultimate end point is critical to determining whether a particular initiative is on the path to that end point. Massive capital investments in long lived facilities and equipment which are not on the path to the ultimate end point are likely to become economic dead losses, if they are ever made. Identification of a number of potential, sometimes contradictory or inconsistent, intermediate or end points is not sufficient (or efficient).
Virtually no matter what we believe we need to accomplish, the most expensive and least effective way to accomplish it would be goal-less, plan-less incrementalism.
"If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there.", The Cheshire Cat (Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll)
Scott Edward Anderson is a consultant, blogger, and media commentator who blogs at The Green Skeptic. More »
Christine Hertzog is a consultant, author, and a professional explainer focused on Smart Grid. More »
Gary Hunt Gary is an Executive-in-Residence at Deloitte Investments with extensive experience in the energy & utility industries. More »
Jesse Jenkins is a graduate student and researcher at MIT with expertise in energy technology, policy, and innovation. More »
Jim Pierobon is the former Chief Energy & Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle, a consultant and blogs at TheEnergyFix.com More »
Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC and an award-winning blogger. More »
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