I had a completely different topic in mind for today's posting, but I'll have to come back to the energy implications of a potential European financial crisis later. Since President Obama's jobs speech to Congress last week I have been awaiting the text of the actual proposed bill, rather than the summaries I'd been seeing. It finally came out at the end of the day yesterday. I feel obliged to point out a few provisions that haven't been widely advertised, either in the original speech or on the fact sheet that the White House published. These include several measures related to alternative energy, such as the inclusion of some project categories within the purview of the proposed National Infrastructure Bank, or the funding for putting solar panels on abandoned and foreclosed buildings as part of their rehabilitation. However, I'm not sure how much any of this matters, because the bill sent to the Congress also includes a slate of provisions that were certain to be regarded as a "poison pill"--sections that would preclude passing it on the all-or-nothing basis that the President seemed to be pushing for last Thursday. Energy features prominently in these poison pill measures.
I can't do justice to a 155-page legislative draft in the few hours I've had to review it. I'll restrict my comments today to the "offset" provisions that escaped being mentioned in the administration's fact sheet and reserve comment on the other aspects of the bill for a later date, if necessary. It seems clear from reading Sections 431-442 that the architects of this bill view the US domestic oil and gas industry as a declining cash cow, rather than as the source of new jobs and growth that I described in last Thursday's posting. Those sections set out to repeal every single oil and gas industry tax benefit of which I was aware, and a couple I hadn't even heard of. Included are the Section 199 manufacturing tax credit enjoyed by every other manufacturing company in America, along with portions of the tax code designed to prevent US companies from being subject to double taxation on their global income, protections that I believe their non-US competitors enjoy automatically under the territorial tax systems in use in most developed countries. In a different context I wouldn't have found any of this surprising, but rather a measure of consistency, since the administration has pursued the termination of these benefits in every budget proposal since 2009 and in a number of bills introduced by its allies in Congress.
The surprise comes from their inclusion in a bill intended to provide immediate relief for the large number of Americans still out of work, and possibly to avert a double-dip recession--a bill described as consisting mainly of provisions that have been backed by both parties at various times. However, the legislative history and likely fate of the poison pill provisions is abundantly clear: they have failed every time they were proposed, including in the previous Congress in which the President's party held overwhelming majorities in both houses. Along with the other "offset" provisions, such as those limiting itemized deductions for taxpayers making more than $200-250,000 per year, or going after the tax treatment of hedge fund income and corporate jets, it's hard to see their inclusion in the American Jobs Act as anything other than politically motivated. This morning's headlines reflect the entirely predictable reaction to them.
It's not that these measures aren't a legitimate subject for debate and action. However, that debate is part and parcel of the growing bipartisan consensus on the need for comprehensive reform of our convoluted tax code, in which the majority of current deductions and exemptions, including those for energy, would be sacrificed in exchange for the lower tax rates necessary to make all US businesses--not just a chosen few--more globally competitive. Squandering that opportunity to pay for a short-term boost to the economy would, among other outcomes, leave the US energy sector less competitive and the nation worse off in the long run. Meanwhile, when the Congress rejects these poison pills and proceeds to cherry-pick among the bill's headline measures, it might also adopt the American Jobs Act's final provision, which dumps the problem of paying for it in the laps of the Supercommittee appointed to find the remainder of the deficit reductions agreed in the Budget Control Act of 2011--already a pretty tall order.
If there was ever a chance for a "clean" jobs bill to pass intact, the pursuit in this venue of the administration's long-standing agendas with the oil and gas industry, hedge fund managers, and corporate jet owners erases it. Whatever the outcome of the negotiations with and within the Congress over this bill, you can count on hearing a lot more about these issues between now and next November.
The American Jobs Act's Poison Pill(s)
Other Posts by Geoffrey Styles
E15's Problems Are Symptomatic of A Failing Biofuels Policy - May 22, 2012
Are Chesapeake's Problems A Red Flag For Shale Gas? - May 17, 2012
Where Gas is Already $10 per Gallon - May 9, 2012
Resources from Space? - May 4, 2012
US Natural Gas Price Nears $10 per Barrel Equivalence - April 30, 2012
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Ed Reid said:
President Obama to Congress (9/14/2011): "What are you waiting for? Pass the bill."
US House of Representatives to President Obama (9/14/2001): We're waiting for the bill, Mr. President.
Perhaps this is another case in which: "We have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it."
The CBO can't "score" the bill until it is formally submitted to the Congress.
Ed Reid said:
Geoff,
You may find this interesting:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190435350457656746039628713...
Geoffrey Styles said:
If you're investing in a new project or product that takes a year to build or develop, then the market in which it will operate will be that of 2013 and beyond, when these tax hikes would kick in. I understand the concept of paying for a deficit-funded stimulus with future revenue or savings, but if the source of the latter is contractionary down the road, isn't that counterproductive, particularly if there's little assurance that conditions in '13 and '14 will be markedly better than those in '10 or '11?
Tax reform has become a buzz word and talking point, but it has the merit of being one the few options that might actually get us out of the trap of continually pushing the bow-shock of fiscal reckoning into the future, a year at a time.
Ed Reid said:
In the real world, you take your medicine today and begin to feel better the tomorrow, or the day after. In the political world, you get better the today and take your medicine sometime in the future, maybe. Somehow, the real world seems to make more sense.
Tax reform, to a single taxing vehicle, with no withholding, would do wonders for transparency, though it would likely trigger a second American Revolution. That might actually be a good thing.
Geoffrey Styles said:
Ed,
Notwithstanding Mr. Jefferson's comments about refreshing the tree of liberty, I prefer my revolutions at the ballot box.
RickEngebretson said:
Geoffrey,
With your capable writing, please consider summarizing any significant renewable energy development improving our economic, environmental, and national security standing in the last few years.
"Trees" grow faster than notable developments in the last few "revolutions" around the sun. Learning to crush rocks for oil is a step over crushing rock for gravel, which I understand.
It seems we are banging our heads against the wall. And I would appreciate TEC sharing some good news.
Geoffrey Styles said:
Rick,
That combination poses a challenge, because most of the efforts on renewables still depend on subsidies for their economic justification, unless you accept the proposition that those subsidies are merely a proxy for the market's failure to capture the externalities associated with conventional energy. In any case, your challenge to share good news is well-timed, because I'm looking for good news, myself. The posting I'm working on for today won't provide much.
Meanwhile, if you're looking for something positive I'd point to geothermal energy. It doesn't get nearly the press that other renewables do, yet the current wave of geothermal development is adding clean, reliable baseload energy at an acceptable cost and with the potential to generate for many decades. Here's a summary of activity from the Geothermal Energy Association: http://www.geo-energy.org/pdf/reports/April2011AnnualUSGeothermalPowerProductionandDevelopmentReport.pdf
RickEngebretson said:
Thanks Geoff for the reply. I realize you're on to the next post, but your reply is worth a note.
Here in Minnesota it was 90 degrees last week and 15 degrees in parts of the state last night. So geothermal has relevance here for temperature moderation.
Perhaps that was my expressed frustration. All this billion dollar pie-in-the-sky stuff. And everybody yelling back and forth. Our nerves are worn.
RickEngebretson said:
There is a complete disconnect with jobs, energy, and environment.
Those of us trying to re-learn environmental stewardship using modern tools are totally ignored. Yet the consequences keep emerging.
Today, in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area national wilderness of northern Minnesota a fire is growing. Since nobody lives there, and the area is embedded in lakes and rivers it gets little media notice.
Analysts can get out their calculator and tells us how many teraWatts, how many tons of CO2 and other atmospheric impacts, and other la-de-da.
But I was busy yesterday because a neighbor farmer wanted to help split wood. So he got his splitter and we worked until we were tired. He is 91 years old. People willing to care for our environment are getting scarce.
So I listen to this political crock of jobs, energy, and environment with complete dismay. I left the "halls of academia" and business decades ago to learn historic human relationships with the environment. It is clear this bill is borrowed money for lazy people with big mouths; while the work that needs to be done is ignored.
Ed Reid said:
The bill, which has yet to be formally submitted to the House, is not intended to be passed into law. Rather, it is intended solely as a campaign ploy to attempt to embarrass the Republicans.
Geoff, I am pleased to see that you did not include the Obama campaign logo in your post.
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Scott Edward Anderson is a consultant, blogger, and media commentator who blogs at The Green Skeptic. More »
Marc Gunther is a writer, speaker and consultant, who focuses on business and the environment. More »
Christine Hertzog is a consultant, author, and a professional explainer focused on Smart Grid. More »
Jesse Jenkins is the director of energy and climate policy at the Breakthrough Institute. More »
Robert Rapier works in the energy industry and writes and speaks about energy and the environment. More »
Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC and an award-winning blogger. More »
Dan Yurman is a nuclear energy blogger and writes regularly for Fuel Cycle Week. More »
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