Efficiency Will Have the Last Laugh

MarkLazen said:

ParvinSharpless said:

Geoffrey Styles said:

Mark,

Of course it matters.  So does supply.  As you note, facts have been in short supply or ill-treated when available, but I'd also point out that a forecast is not a fact, particularly coming from an agency that does a superb job of reporting and analyzing what's happening today, but whose track record of predictions has been, let's just say mixed. 

Resources, reserves and flows get used indiscriminately, but there are a few simple rules of thumb.  Proved reserves ought to be able to produce out over 20 years.  If the oil resource in the off-limits areas of the offshore is 18 billion barrels--another govt. estimate--and if those 18 billion barrels of resource ultimately turn into 18 billion barrels of reserves, then you're talking 1 billion bbl/year or 2.5 million bbl/day.  As a reality check, consider that we're currently producing 5 million bbl/day from total US reserves of 21 billion bbl, and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico is producing 1 million a day (slated to double by 2014) from about 7 billion bbls.  Whatever the ultimate flow from the off-limits areas, factoring in permitting and production delays, uncommercial finds, and all other factors, 200,000 bbl/day must be regarded as lying at the low end of any reasonable range of estimates.

MarkLazen said:

Robin Carey said:

MarkLazen said:

One of the frustrating aspects of this debate Geoff is the fact that everyone approaches the math differently. In particular, it's not always clear whether folks are talking about how much oil is under the sea bed or how soon we can get it and at what flow rate. Or whether those doing the calculations are assuming that all cars have under-inflated tires.

And of course, none of the calculations are apples-to-apples. From Time:

The Bush Administration estimates that expanded offshore drilling could increase oil production by 200,000 bbl. per day by 2030. We use about 20 million bbl. per day, so that would meet about 1% of our demand two decades from now. Meanwhile, efficiency experts say that keeping tires inflated can improve gas mileage 3%, and regular maintenance can add another 4%. Many drivers already follow their advice, but if everyone did, we could immediately reduce demand several percentage points. In other words: Obama is right.

And...

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has estimated that under-inflated tires alone waste about 1.2 billion gallons of gasoline a year. To put that in perspective, that's 28 million barrels of gasoline a year, worth over $3 billion that we won't send out of the country for foreign oil purchases.

What's really sad about this problem--and not just in this instance but in all debates about public policy--is that the electorate doesn't even believe there is such a thing as "facts" anymore. Instead every debate becomes just "he said, she said." That's why I'm inclined to focus on the underlying arguments. One side is saying "conservation matters," and the other is sending the message that it doesn't. The truth is that it does.

Geoffrey Styles said:

Mark,

As you say, it's just not glamorous, and many folks assume it will just appear, as prices go up.

Meanwhile, my back-of-the-envelope take on proper tire inflation is that, aside from its safety benefits, it might save as much oil as our current ethanol program displaces.  So if it's worth doing the latter, it ought to be worth doing the former. However, it still only rolls up to at most 2 billion barrels equivalent over 20 years, a fraction of what's believed to be sitting under the off-limits seabed.