The IPCC’s Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the IEA and UN suggest what’s next after Copenhagen

“What Copenhagen proves is that the world’s power balance has changed. This was not a negotiation of the G8 or white Anglo-Saxon males. When you have India, China and South Africa coming together, that reflects a new political reality.” 

Day Two of the World Future Energy Summit conference in Abu Dhabi, and Senator Timothy Wirth, the lead US negotiator on Kyoto and president of the United Nations Foundation, is making the case for why, if nothing else, Copenhagen marked a watershed moment.

For those who have been involved in climate change negotiations over the last 20 years, Cop15 was a measure of the success of their efforts. More and clued-in heads of state attended the meetings than any other in recent years, more private sector entities joined the table, and traditional battle lines blurred.

“The reluctance of politicians to get involved has changed,” Wirth said. “We’re also seeing a commitment to funding that has not happened before. Ambiguity exists but the details are being worked out.”

Wirth also highlighted the ‘major break’ from the lockstep of the G77, and suggested this was a development well worth watching. More importantly, he added, “At Copenhagen, for the first time, we saw policy based on science. I cannot remember a discussion or negotiations before that were based on an agreed set of data.”

For that, Wirth credited the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the efforts of its head honcho, Dr. Rajendra “Pachy” Pachauri. Despite everything else, the senator added, the Cop achievements should not be discounted even as the international community looks to next steps. He is clear about what those should be: looking to energy efficiency as the first fuel, followed by renewables and a commitment to the world’s forests. He’s also calling for an examination of black soot and close monitoring of the shale gas discoveries around the world, ‘a major game changer’ for the energy community.

Dr. Pachauri, in fine fettle, delineated not only the consequences of unchecked climate change for every region of the world, but spelled out what needs to be done by developed and developing countries alike in civil society, policy and technology. He pointed to an extremely short window of opportunity for the world to act. (To listen to Dr. Pachauri’s full address, click here).

But perhaps one of the most riveting suggestions of the morning came from the private sector, from Vestas Global President and CEO Ditlev Engel. In all the discussions about emissions and climate change, Engel said, water cannot be forgotten. The average European household, consuming five megawatt hours of electricity annually, can use 10,000 litres of water via coal, 12,500 litres through nuclear energy, 20,000 litres of water through an oil/petrol process, or more than one million litres if it counts biofuel (sugarcane-based ethanol) as a source, he explained. Wind, on the other hand, requires only five litres. Even coal plants consume almost twice as much water with CCS.

“We must bear in mind that not all low-carbon is created equal,” Engel said. “Climate change will hit through water, and water cannot be forgotten in any of our discussions.”  His vote is for solutions that are both low-carbon and low-water – what he refers to as the ‘big, hairy, audacious goal for the industry.

Richard Jones, Deputy Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, was another of the standout speakers of the day. The agency, he said, had often been regarded as the watchdog of North American energy and true to its nature, in a post-cop future the IEA “is going to bark.” 

Jones referenced both the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2009 reference scenario – one where energy demand grows 40 per cent between now and 2030, with coal recording the largest increase, and one where non-OECD countries account for 93 per cent of the increase in global demand – and its 450 ppm scenario, that limits temperature increases to two degrees.

The current pledges set out at Copenhagen point in the right direction, Jones said, but even if those are adhered to further efforts would still be needed to close the gap and reach the 450 scenario. To move from the IEA’s reference scenario to  the latter requires – at the very least – the rollout of domestic policies for renewables and measures including efficiency, sectoral agreements, and cap and trade for power and industry sectors and international credits. Even with all that, success depends on significant financing being made available.

Despite the monumental task ahead, Jones is not a doom-monger. “The future doesn’t mean going without, but making the best use of what we have,” he said.

Like all great conquests, success in this arena likely begins with knowing the size of what you’re facing. Thanks to the work of the IPCC, the IEA and other august bodies, that is on course. Next comes the chipping away at it to find tenable solutions.