Escalating tensions over Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to a several dollar rise in the price of oil over the past two weeks, portending an even higher oil price security risk premium that could emerge – were Iran to become a nuclear power.

Analysts are already predicting a large oil price jump, should Iran miscalculate and find itself in a military conflict with the United States over free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

As has been reported, Iran can make a credible threat using asymmetric warfare to temporarily block shipping from going through the Strait. But it will be extremely difficult for Tehran to keep the flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf shut off for a prolonged period, if at all. The use of small boat swarming tactics is projected to have a spotty shot of success.

Academic experts also give Iran’s chances of knocking out Saudi oil exports by missile attack a similarly low probability. In the end, jawboning over the Strait of Hormuz –while seeming counterproductive to Western ears—may be intended for the Iranian domestic audience ahead of already controversial parliamentary elections. Iran’s most real ability to threaten Western oil supplies might be simply in its ability to foment unrest in heavily Shi’a populated areas in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

Baker Institute studies on Hormuz bypass routes show that Saudi Arabia can ship most of its current crude oil export program by pipeline through its 5 million b/d east-west Petroline pipeline. By using drag reduction agents, Saudi Aramco can increase throughput on the Petroline by as much as 65 percent.

A second, 1.65 million b/d pipeline across Saudi Arabia, Ipsa-2, used to carry Iraqi oil to the Saudi Red Sea port of Mu-jiz, was taken out of commission after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

The United Arab Emirates’ officials have confirmed that a $3.3 billion bypass pipeline under construction from the UAE to Oman won’t be operational until later this spring, at the earliest. That bypass, first recommended by the Baker Institute in its 1996 Persian Gulf study, will allow the UAE to export 1.5 million b/d (or roughly 70 percent of its current exports) outside the Strait of Hormuz.

At present, Kuwait has no options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

For a more detailed discussion on the topic, please listen to Amy Myers Jaffe on NPR’s On Point.