The more worrisome picture is below. It depicts the cumulative spill, using the initial estimate, and the more recent estimates based on analyses of the footage of the leaks.

deepsea1.gif
Figure 2: Estimated cumulative oil spill, according to NOAA (blue line), according to Wereley (red line), with plus/minus 20% bands (gray lines), Exxon Valdez spill (black line), and Ixtoc-1 spill (black line), all in thousands of barrels. Wereley estimate is from Steven Wereley/Purdue University. Source: Harris, "Gulf Spill May Far Exceed Official Estimates," NPR, May 14, 2010.

The implications of the higher rates are obvious, but to be explicit, here are some threshold dates. Under the original estimate, the Exxon Valdez spill at 250,000 barrels is exceeded on 6/8; under the Wereley midpoint estimate, it was exceeded between 4/22 and 4/23.

via www.econbrowser.com

NOAA is disputing the media reports, saying that the data has not been analyzed but it sure sounds bad.


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