Surprise demand for electric cars?:

Plug-in electric cars have technology geeks and the well heeled excited, but how will they play in Peoria?

Ernst & Young on Thursday released survey results from a survey of one thousand licensed U.S. drivers which found that 10 percent of drivers would consider purchasing a plug-in hybrid or electric vehicle. That represents about 20 million American drivers, enough demand to sell out 2010 and 2011 electric vehicles.

Automakers are betting the electrification of power trains is the future of the auto business, as was clear from this week’s North American International Auto Show in Detroit. But even as automakers prepare to produce tens of thousands of these cars, big questions over strong the demand will be remain.

Some argue that there will be rapid uptake in certain regions, much the way the well known Toyota Prius hybrid has been adopted. The Boston Consulting Group forecasts that hybrids and pure electrics will represent about 25 percent of new auto sales by 2020 will be some form of electric, with most being conventional hybrids like the Prius.

Yet there are still clear barriers to consumer adoption, including range, cost, and availability of charging stations at home or public places.

OK, I can’t take it any more. I’ve been screaming on this site for freaking years that the initial demand for PHEV’s and EVs is much higher than the naysayers claim. In particular, this notion that we simply must build out an EV charging infrastructure immediately is complete nonsense.

There is a potential US market in the tens of millions of vehicles just among households with the following characteristics:

  • They have a garage with a wall socket.
  • They currently own more than one vehicle.
  • They could easily live with a mix of gasoline or gasoline-electric hybrids and EVs in the household, because at least one of their vehicles is used solely for commuting or local errands and is almost never driven anywhere near the current battery range of an EV (or even the Volt) in a single day, so it can be recharged overnight.
  • They would absolutely love to be able to drive something that sticks it to Big Oil and all those nasty oil exporting countries.

As soon as the total cost of ownership of price of EVs and PHEVs, after all tax breaks or other subsidies, gets close to the TCO of a gasoline car, they’ll sell like crazy. How “close”? Close enough that the perceived marginal utility of that last bullet item–sticking it to the man–close the gap in actual costs.

Note to the world: Next time, pay more attention to what I say here. It will save you a bunch of time. Seriously.


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