Paul Krugman, a man whose work I admire for its pedagogical value as well as its chance of being the one thing on this planet that makes economics and economists cool, has a long piece in the NY Times about environmental economics.
To say it’s worth your time to read the whole thing would be a laughable understatement.
So ignore everything else that’s competing for your attention right now and go read it. I’ll be here when you get back.
[audio clip of the Final Jeopardy music, looped to fill time]
See? I told you it was worth shutting off the YouTube sports videos (or whatever other form of bubblegum for the brain you use the vast resources of the Internet to access) for those few minutes.
While I didn’t find anything particularly new in what Krugman said, I think its value lies in:
- The way it lays out the broad view of environmental economics and our current situation.
- The fact that it does not slavishly embrace the simplest possible “free market” approach. To be sure, Krugman says that we need to use a market-based solution, which I think is undeniably true, but notice how he talks about supplementing it with special controls on coal use and resorting to (gasp!) a carbon tariff, if needed, to force China to comply.[1]
- The concrete numbers he mentions (including some intentionally misleading ones pushed by the Party of No) regarding the cost of taking action.
- The cost of inaction he mentions, along with an appropriate warning about the amount of heating that we’ve already locked into, thanks to past CO2 emissions.[2]
- The frank, heart-felt discussion of the two main approaches to public policy, the “ramp” vs. the “big bang”. (Yes, I’m being cryptic here; I don’t really believe that all of you went and read the whole article, so consider the opacity of this item another incentive to go read it. And shame on you for doubting me.)
- The recognition that here in the real world we’re all at the mercy of what politicians can be persuaded to do.
- The high probability that it will seriously piss off the economist haters in the crowd. Let’s be brutally honest here: I know you’re out there. The peak oil crowd and the climate change crowd, including some people I know personally and like, think all economists, without exception, belong in the same general part of the morals scale as child molesters, drug dealers, and serial killers. I consider it a social good when such blatant ignorance about any group or person or topic is kicked in the teeth; it’s notably welcome when it’s done by someone I respect and in such a conspicuously polite way.
Finally, a public comment for Paul Krugman: Thank you, thank you, thank you.
[1] I think the chances that we’ll see a carbon tariff are exceedingly high. China (and India) have made it abundantly clear that they place economic growth ahead of environmental issues. Add to that the likelihood that even the US will feel a rising sense of urgency as the impacts of climate change rise and become all the more obvious, and I don’t see how we escape some scenario like the US, Canada, most/all of the EU, and Japan forming a trading block that imposes a carbon tariff on all imported goods. The most likely resource war in the next decade or two might well be not a shooting war over water or oil or other tangible resource, but a World Trade War over carbon emissions.
[2] Yes, once again, I come back to something I’ve said dozens of times on this site: Timing is everything. The timing aspects of peak oil, climate change, and sustainability issues in general are exceedingly perverse, and they’re one of the main reasons why I think these situations are so urgent. I’m also convinced that despite how often I harp on them here the overwhelming majority of people, even TCOE readers, don’t really understand this point on a visceral level. It is the number one reason why these topics become more frightening the more you study them.
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