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Is United States Energy Independence in Sight?

The data analysis arm of the US Department of Energy is forecasting that despite low oil prices, the US will become energy independent within a decade. That result depends on frugality as much as resource abundance, and it includes...

Posted May 6, 2015    

An Energy Perspective on the Iran Nuclear Framework

With enormous natural gas reserves and renewables potential, Iran has little need for nuclear power, and even less for uranium enrichment.If Iran's sacrifices in pursuit of its nuclear program cannot be explained by a gap in its energy mix...

Posted April 14, 2015    

How Will Low Oil Prices Affect Natural Gas?

The growth of US natural gas output in recent years has been sustained partly by gas produced in conjunction with shale or "tight" oil. The slowdown in oil drilling in response to lower oil prices could also affect future natural gas production...

Posted April 6, 2015    

IEA Sees Fundamental Shifts in the Current Oil Price Drop

The IEA's latest medium-term oil forecast is a useful update to the thinking behind its current long-term outlook, which predated much of the current price drop.They expect shale output to be relatively resilient and rely on Iraq's capacity to...

Posted March 9, 2015    

A Lesson in Oil Pricing

The recent oil-price collapse confirms what we should have learned in 2007-8 about the influence of the last increments of supply and demand on price.This also means that future oil prices should be largely independent of the size of the oil market...

Posted February 23, 2015    

What Will Fuel Today's Advanced Vehicles?

Last month I attended the annual "policy day" at the Washington Auto Show, which typically emphasizes green cars and related technology. This year it included several high-profile awards and announcements, along with a keynote address by US...

Posted February 12, 2015    

How Much Will Low Oil Prices Stimulate Demand?

Since weak oil demand growth is a major ingredient in the current oil price crash, higher demand stimulated by low prices could be a moderating factor.While US demand has risen since prices fell, there are several reasons why the global response may...

Posted February 2, 2015    

Was 2014 Really the Warmest Year?

The media is widely reporting 2014 as the warmest year on record, yet the underlying data don't support that conclusion. The data actually lead to a different finding, of 2014 tied with 2010 and 2005 within the margin of error, reflecting ...

Posted January 22, 2015    

How the Oil Price Slump Helps Renewable Energy

Intuition suggests that the current sharp correction in oil prices must be bad for the deployment of renewable and other alternative energy technologies. As the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column noted Wednesday, EV makers like Tesla...

Posted January 19, 2015    

2014 in Review: Shale Energy's First Price Cycle

2014 was an extraordinary year in energy, vividly illustrating both sides of the Chinese proverb about interesting times. Oil market volatility was the big story for much of the year, with the dominance of geopolitical risks finally yielding to...

Posted January 7, 2015    

Is OPEC Washed Up?

OPEC's unwillingness or inability to reduce output to defend high oil prices raises doubts about the cartel's effectiveness and future.Absent cuts by OPEC, it is not yet clear whether the burden of rebalancing oil markets will fall on...

Posted December 29, 2014    

The IEA's Stressful Outlook

The latest long-term forecast from the International Energy Agency suggests that the benefits of today's low oil prices might be temporary, with more volatility ahead.The report focuses on a number of risks, including the adequacy of...

Posted December 8, 2014