This article was inspired by the most recent State of the Union: America’s plan for an “all-out on local energy”- and the subsequent discussions in the industry on its implications, its opportunities and its challenges.

I promised to give you my take on the present on-going market developments with shale gas as well as my predictions for America's energy future from my civic venture point of view.

I'm looking at America's energy future from both a national and a global perspective. I have three thoughts on the consequences of the American shale gas revolution:

First and foremost: I do not believe that America's Future Energy dream is well served by focusing on becoming energy independent.
This idea stimulates the wrong ideas and behaviours in the American people. I believe that we live in a global village and no matter how hard it is to deal with and maintain relationships with others- and at times- assertive or aggressive nations- our human task is to reach-out, to bridge and to create long and lasting interdependencies. We need to solve our global problems together. Energy is a global problem and deserves not just national approaches but also international leadership. America needs to be part of that leadership.

Hence, America should develop healthy energy interdependency, based on its natural resources and talents. It needs to create reciprocity in it's economic system, leading the US to become a leading exporter of energy transition solutions worldwide.

Secondly: We need to ask ourselves: what comes after shale gas rock?
Instead of jumping on the bandwagon and creating a large supply chain industry to service the shale gas revolution to increase profits. We have to be a little bit more cautious and think through what comes next. We may need shale gas rock for a much longer time period then presently forecasted, since effective alternatives are not yet up for grasp. In addition, I'm sceptical of the present burn & earn business model and practice. We may find smarter ways in leveraging this gas, for example, by blending it in with cleantech and energy conservation measures.

Thirdly: I have serious doubts on the sustainability of the shale gas rock practice.
From an environmental point of view: I was part of the group that initiated new research at Shell, which investigated opportunities to inject nano-sensors down-hole in order to monitor where the fracks are and where the chemicals are going. But while this research is nowhere near complete, I can tell you that our production engineers can't yet see or can't yet know exactly where the chemicals and other stuff is going, right now.
But also from an economic point of view: The steep decline curves - and the unequal formations- of the rock are already in themselves a reason to be very cautious of future predictions. We have seen this in our industry over and over again: Low hanging fruit is produced first. How we proceeed after that is the tough part.

So what do we need to do then?

We need to make a habit of making smart energy conservation solutions the priority in the energy industry and industry policy. Cleantech power generating solutions should come next. And only then should we rely on the 'workhorses' (the fossil fuel industry). We need to start changing the way energy is brought to homes, cities and cars on a large scale.

We need to figure out how to deliver the lowest cost, lowest earth resource consumption options to our homes. (I know about the present struggle in Germany to get this right, but there is also some learning to do with changing the prevailing business models.)

The shale gas industry- worldwide- is in need of policies and best practice guidelines in order to avoid unnecessary harm. In Canada, the natural gas industry themselves have offered to define best practices for monitoring and registering the chemicals and application of this technology. I understand the EPA wishes to do the same in America. I welcome and applaud that.

In addition, we need to recognise that actions away from home can have great consequences and impact at home. Think of the 2008 subprime mortgage loans and banking crisis in US, think of Greece, and think of the present Euro-zone crisis. Now, our political leaders are beginning to understand and react to the fact that the financial system needs global, rather than national and regional, oversight.

However, this kind of thinking has not yet pervaded our world energy system. There is no independent institution, organisation with experts, or forum which discusses, reviews, plans or agrees on the robustness, stability, affordability or sustainability of (decisions taken) in the energy system in the US, in China, in Africa or in Europe. China looks after China. The US looks after the US.

Thus, international dialogue between countries on energy production and consumption behaviours of natural resources needs to increase, because that will determine the price, affordability and outlook for us all. America's Energy Future is hence linked to my Energy Future. America's behaviour in its oil and gas industry is hence linked with my future outlook on this industry. Thus, a fall or crisis in America's shale gas market sector will affect us all. Gas supply will fall short and prices will rapidly rise.

Finally, a couple of weeks ago, America's credit rating offices Moody's and Fitch downgraded 7 or 8 European countries on their credit rating. There is no such thing yet in Energy Land. Should there be? I argue yes. And I'd advise that rating agency to lower the credibility rating of the US, because of its current approach to shale gas.