There is a storm brewing in the climate change world. Climate policy efforts are in disarray. There’s a chance that the Congress, energized by new leadership that questions the scientific evidence for climate change, will hold hearings to investigate scientific practices. Climate scientists are preparing to defend their field.
Will the climate blogs help mediate this coming debate? Or amplify it?
I began thinking about this after seeing highlights from the Rally to Restore Sanity. If there is one forum that needs some sanity restoration, it is the climate blogs (science and political ones). Blogs highlight the extremes of the other side. Bloggers call each other names. Bloggers get grandiose and self-righteous.
Yes, absolutely, you can blame the medium. It is impersonal. It is easy to be extreme when the opponent is a collection of pixels and text rather than a living, breathing person. Plus, blogging only works if you have readers. And more controversy equals more page views.
But add it all up, and what do you get?
Cable news. Steve McIntrye as Bill O'Reilly? Joe Romm as Keith Olbermann? Anthony Watts as Glenn Beck? (plus a lot of folks hoping to be Jon Stewart?)
Just as political pundits focus on political maneuvering rather than actual policy debates, many bloggers focus on bashing each other rather than discussing the issues. We do so because it appears that shouting is the best way to get heard. So just as cable news channels have trended towards the extremes and trumped-up scandals to capture the dwindling audience and dwindling advertising dollars, many bloggers end up focusing on the controversies rather than the consensus in part just to stay afloat in a crowded online sea.
If you write nice, reasoned posts, you are less likely to get a gang of dedicated readers. If you insult the skeptics or question the scientists, the readers will come. Michael Tobis has been caught up recently; he wrote a very reasoned critique of misguided uncertainty discussion by another blogger – but it was the vitriol at the end that drew all the attention. The personalities become the subject. The medium becomes the... ok, a Canadian can never get far into a media conversation without quoting Marshall McLuhan. No particular person is to blame for the dynamic and no one is entirely immune. I’ve fallen in myself on a number of occasions.
The question we have to ask is this:
What do we hope to accomplish by blogging? Do we want to play “inside baseball”, or do we want more people to pay attention to the game? I may be wrong, but I’d guess that most of the science bloggers began their blog with an aim to educate people about climate change and to foster discussion on science and policy. Sure, there's some subconscious pleas for attention and what not at work, but I'll trust that bloggers of every stripe honestly believed their blog would improve the public discussion.
Is it working? I'd argue that the escalation of tone is not expanding the conservation on climate change. Everyone in the room is just shouting louder at each other. There’s no better way to alienate the broader public.
Behind the name calling and vitriol lies some neglected, one might even say inconvenient, truths.
You can think climate “skeptics” (or “alarmists”) are wrong, without thinking they are evil and/or in it for the money.
You can deconstruct an argument, without abusing the source.
You can trust the scientific consensus, but not be an alarmist.
You can agree with many of Joe Romm’s arguments, but disagree with his abrasive style.
You can disagree with Roger Pielke Jr. or Judith Curry most of the time, but agree with them sometimes.
You can know that the East Anglia e-mails have zero impact on the science of climate change and did not warrant one percent of the media coverage, but still be irritated with some of the scientists involved for the tone they used in a few of the messages.
You can agree with public statements by climate scientists about climate action, but think they are the wrong people to make such statements.
You can agree with the findings of a new study, but disagree that the findings are worthy of publicity.
You can trust the scientific consensus on climate change, but not believe that action is necessary. That may not be my personal judgment on the matter but I accept that the decision on climate action is about more than science.
And, yes, you can disagree with this post (and claim I've set up a straw blogger), but still give it some thought.
Climate blogs, cable news and some inconvenient truths
Authored by:
Simon Donner
Simon Donner is a professor in the Geography Department at the University of British Columbia who studies why the climate matters to people and aquatic ecosystems, including rivers and coral reefs.
Other Posts by Simon Donner
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A guest says:
Semantics. If the science says that a certain amount of excess man made CO2 will cause catastrophe then it demands action of some sort and if it doesn’t then the sceptics are right and we can all stop worrying about it. You can’t disconnect the one from the other.
It may be your opinion that it is the consequences of CO2 action that led people to doubt CO2 theory but you’re only looking at the trigger, not the bullet. If climate theory didn’t demand action then it would be a scientific curiosity, people wouldn’t doubt it because they wouldn’t care. I used to accept it too. Many scientists and politicians accept it because they don’t understand the repercussions. They like the idea of saving the planet but haven’t bothered to check the planet needs saving.
I don’t know if climate theory is right or wrong. I suppose that makes me an agnostic. I do know that the science is flawed. I know that it was born out of a field that was more scientific curiosity than world changing excellence. Climategate didn’t prove the science wrong but it opened a window into how poor the science was being conducted. The more I learn about climate science the more holes I see. I began to understand that the scary claims are more guesses than calculations. The more I hear, the more I doubt the quality of the scientists in the field. It needs stripping bare for the world to see and rebuilding properly.
Most people fail to understand the difference between belief and knowledge. They may believe in God but they know the tax man exists, so they pay their taxes and commit sin. Climate science is the same. Do you believe in it or do you know it’s true?
A guest says:
TinyCO2 -
"The kinds of changes that CO2 theory demands are so great that people should be able to make their own risk assessment"
Think about the second last point in the post: You can trust the scientific consensus on climate change, but not believe that action is necessary. That may not be my personal judgment on the matter but I accept that the decision on climate action is about more than science.
The scientific evidence for a human impact on the climate doesn't demand anything. We as society may choose to act out of concern for the social, economic and cultural costs of the impacts of climate change. The choice of what to do with the scientific evidence is about values. It is a mistake to attack the science because of a disgreement with a policy option.
Climate "activists" and some scientists should accept some of the blame for this. Too many people have run around saying the "science says we must do X", and it has led people who are skeptical of X to question the science itself.
A guest says:
You can’t shrink a very closed debate, which is what there was before modern sceptic sites. There was only one side and it was heavily biased.
Most official climate sites are aimed at the lowest common denominator. They are too simplistic, partly because they worry that the public won’t understand and partly because the full picture isn’t a nice clean one. I can understand the motive but I don’t agree with it. They should have told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth from the start. When advocacy started colouring what was presented, they were trying to make the public’s mind up for them. The kinds of changes that CO2 theory demands are so great that people should be able to make their own risk assessment, with as many facts and figures as they could absorb. That is how it should be, even if the public come to the wrong conclusion, because a forced acceptance of AGW won’t gain the commitment that would be needed to make a difference. Every time an undecided person learns that what they thought they knew about AGW was only partly true, they begin to wonder where truth starts and stops.
There would be no need for Watts, McIntyre, Montford or the others if the official sites were truly open to discussion. Few official sites allow external opinion at all, which makes them unresponsive and slow to follow the latest information. Real Climate, the Guardian CiF, Joe Romm and others, pick and chose the posts that appear, regardless if they are decent, thoughtful opinions. Some of the smaller sites allow debate but are poorly attended.
If not blogs, where will the debate be held? I am more than happy to move to neutral ground. My ideal would be to see the big names of both sides of the divide, hammer out the truth, regardless of what it is.
A guest says:
Yes, I suspect most bloggers have quite good intentions but get consumed by a loud and at time nasty culture. Are they expanding the conversation? Or shrinking it, as people suggest of cable news?
A guest says:
You forget that there’s a war going on. The climate hawks (Grist’s name not mine) want to persuade the public that they have to change their CO2 emitting ways forever; and the climate sceptics want to stop the careering slide towards the most radical change in recent human history, until they’re sure it’s necessary. Many sceptics accept that there may be a problem but that the science is still in its infancy, they say we should take the time to get the details right or we could waste huge sums of money and lives on wrong or unnecessary solutions. Hawks say we don’t have time to iron out the details and we must act now or we are doomed.
My opinion would be, that under those extremes it’s a surprise that the fight is as polite as it is.
The lobbying by Big Oil/Coal/Etc passed most of the public by, though it probably influenced professional political viewpoints considerably. Of course the green movement has its own lobbyists and many of the key organisations have spend millions on campaigning over the years. The hawks have had most success on the public stage, ably recruiting celebrities. It’s no accident that the main advertising vehicles are movies (Day After Tomorrow, Avatar, An Inconvenient Truth, etc). Once image or environmentally conscious politicians took the anti CO2 side, there was a big swing towards acceptance of AGW theories. It seemed that the hawks couldn’t lose. Then there emerged a new side.
The real players in the sceptic community are just ordinary citizens with their own concerns about the science. They’re not funded by oil, they don’t hate the environment, many of them are pretty green in their habits, they aren’t stupid or deluded and they won’t give climate science a free pass just because others think they should. Because these sceptics haven’t got access to PR departments, dedicated staff or the luxury of a government grant they have to use what they can. Sometimes that can be sarcasm or mockery but it rarely descends into abuse. Sure, posters can be rude but the best blogs keep a tight control on that. There is a lot of very good science discussion out there and that you can’t see that says more about you, than them.
If you want sceptics to fight by your rules then you have to call for a level playing field. Where are the dedicated sceptic grants? Where are the respected peer review journals where sceptic works are welcomed instead of tolerated or worse, rejected out of hand? Why can’t the IPCC reports have counter argument sections? Where are the climate debates? Where are the regulatory bodies that might ensure that climate science is done to a suitable quality? When does Hollywood make the sceptic movie?
You might argue that the sceptics don’t deserve these things because fundamentally they’re wrong. That would deserve an obscenity.
Rebecca Lutzy says:
Hi Simon, Thank you for the thoughtful post on a topic we think about a lot at The Energy Collective. As our audience has grown, with a 600% increase in unique visitors over the past year or so, we review content submitted from a spectrum of blogger tones and styles and grapple with these questions daily in selecting posts to feature.
A major challenge for any blogger in this arena is the sheer number of climate (and energy) blogs of vastly varying quality. Add to that an increasing number of important social media mediums to broadcast ideas and premium for the number of Twitter, Facebook, etc. followers. As the market for ideas floods with competition for attention, there is a natural tendency, as you point out, to get louder and perhaps more critical of other bloggers, with the impersonal computer screen medium probably exacerbating the trend. I think this is particularly acute towards the tails of the distribution of very strong political and/or technology preferences.
What is the impact of all of the noise? On a positive note, it makes even-handed bloggers who are thorough, including our Advisory board members, even more valuable and trusted to readers. The value of their analysis increases and a small number of trusted blogs are amplified, appropriately and to good end.
But it is critical to ask who these bloggers are reaching and whether, as you say, it is an "inside baseball" game or one that welcomes interested readers from outside the core. Does more noise make it easier or harder for the best thinking to rise to the top in the competition for bandwidth?
I'm not sure if you met him when we overlaped at Princeton, but a Politics professor here, Marcus Prior, wrote an execellent book "Post-Broadcast Democracy," focused on TV broadcasting, which analyzes the same issues. More extreme political polarization in the U.S. has tracked with increasingly specialized consumption of news and information, with those who disagree with each other rarely operating in the same arenas.
Valuable food for thought.
I hope all is well with you at UBC! Best, Rebecca
Scott Edward Anderson is a consultant, blogger, and media commentator who blogs at The Green Skeptic. More »
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